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FREN less dull as Cashflow turns positive
FREN Current 77 Target 77 + 0%
May 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 6% 6% 5% -5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-69% -67% -66% -67% -59%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-313, -227, -82, -877, 182
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-26,257 -28,179 -28,232 -30,241 -30,667
Capital raised improved , a 0% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-24,083 -24,772 -24,756 -24,180 -24,164
May 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 6% 6% 5% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 2,679 billion rupiah -5% below our 2,815 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,008 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-69% -67% -66% -67% -59%
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -59% profit from 7 to 25 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 14 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-313, -227, -82, -877, 182
- Free cashflow went positive from -877 to 182 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -334 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -251 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -334 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 228 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-26,257 -28,179 -28,232 -30,241 -30,667
- Cash increased 463 to 630 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 30,704 to 31,297 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -30,241 to -30,667 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -858 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -27,805 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 0% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-24,083 -24,772 -24,756 -24,180 -24,164
- FREN 29 quarter capital raised improved -24,180 to -24,164 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -16 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -23,306 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 23,724 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.58 X assets with a 47 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 913 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 0% higher target price 77 rupiah.