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FREN cashflow negative again

FREN Current 77 Target 69 -10%

11/10/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 5%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -129% of market cap

Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 5% -5% 4% 2%
2,691 2,815 2,679 2,775 2,834
  • Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 2,834 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,999 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-66% -67% -60% -60% -63%
10 7 25 30 1,588
  • The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -63% profit from 30 to 1,588 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
  • We use a -63% cost ratio to predict a -12 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
246 -240 516 617 464
-328 -637 -334 -425 -1,274
  • Free cashflow went negative again from 192 to -811 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,274 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -328 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -680 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -184 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
879 463 630 321 372
29,111 30,704 31,297 31,071 31,091
  • Cash increased 321 to 372 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 31,071 to 31,091 billion rupiah so net cash was up -30,750 to -30,719 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 737 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -29,064 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity
-24,756 -24,180 -24,164 -23,661 -24,520
16 575 16 503 -859
-0 1 -0 -0 0
  • FREN cumulative capital worsened -23,661 to -24,520 billion rupiah with -859 & + 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -25,257 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 23,878 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.55 X assets with a -59 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our operating cashflow forecast is 4,376 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 4.9 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 69 rupiah.
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