FREN cashflow negative again
FREN Current 77 Target 69 -10%
11/10/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 5% -5% 4% 2%
2,691 2,815 2,679 2,775 2,834
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-66% -67% -60% -60% -63%
10 7 25 30 1,588
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
246 -240 516 617 464
-328 -637 -334 -425 -1,274
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
879 463 630 321 372
29,111 30,704 31,297 31,071 31,091
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity
-24,756 -24,180 -24,164 -23,661 -24,520
16 575 16 503 -859
-0 1 -0 -0 0
11/10/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 5%
- Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -129% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 5% -5% 4% 2%
2,691 2,815 2,679 2,775 2,834
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 2,834 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,999 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-66% -67% -60% -60% -63%
10 7 25 30 1,588
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -63% profit from 30 to 1,588 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use a -63% cost ratio to predict a -12 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
246 -240 516 617 464
-328 -637 -334 -425 -1,274
- Free cashflow went negative again from 192 to -811 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,274 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -328 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -680 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -184 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
879 463 630 321 372
29,111 30,704 31,297 31,071 31,091
- Cash increased 321 to 372 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 31,071 to 31,091 billion rupiah so net cash was up -30,750 to -30,719 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 737 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -29,064 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity
-24,756 -24,180 -24,164 -23,661 -24,520
16 575 16 503 -859
-0 1 -0 -0 0
- FREN cumulative capital worsened -23,661 to -24,520 billion rupiah with -859 & + 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -25,257 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 23,878 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.55 X assets with a -59 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 4,376 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 4.9 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 69 rupiah.
