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FREN slightly less dull as average Cashflow heads to positive
FREN Current 81 Target 91 +13%
March 14 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
1% -6% 6% 6% 5%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -69% -67% -66% -67%
Cashflow negative but average improving
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,797 -313 -227 -82 -877
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-25,664 -26,257 -28,179 -28,232 -30,241
Capital raised improved, a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-23,912 -24,083 -24,772 -24,756 -24,180
March 14 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
1% -6% 6% 6% 5%
- Sales grew 5% in the fourth quarter to 2,815 billion rupiah -5% below our 2,960 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,321 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -69% -67% -66% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -67% profit from 10 to 7 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -67% now.
- We use the latest -67% cost ratio to predict a 131 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow negative but average improving
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,797 -313 -227 -82 -877
- Free cashflow went from -82 to -877 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -637 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -375 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -483 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 201 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-25,664 -26,257 -28,179 -28,232 -30,241
- Cash declined 879 to 463 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 29,111 to 30,704 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -28,232 to -30,241 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -46 billion rupiah equity payout -429 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -28,170 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-23,912 -24,083 -24,772 -24,756 -24,180
- FREN 28 quarters capital raised improved -24,756 to -24,180 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -575 billion rupiah liabilities -1 billion rupiah equity payments & will be -25,347 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 24,954 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.60 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 805 billion rupiah which means an 31 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price of 91 rupiah.