FCX Cashflow positive again
Current 42 Target 51 + 21%
Feb 16, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
1% 7% -18% -8% 15%
6,164 ; 6,603 ; 5,416 ; 5,003 ; 5,758 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
31% 38% 28% 21% 28%
1,358 ; 1,904 ; 1,038 ; 560 ; 977 million dollars
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,280 ; 1,691 ; 1,621 ; 758 ; 1,069 million dollars
-733 ; -714 ; -816 ; -851 ; -1,059 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
8,068 ; 8,338 ; 9,492 ; 8,578 ; 8,146 million dollars
25,003 ; 24,790 ; 26,066 ; 25,746 ; 26,222 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
215 ; -169 ; -1,481 ; 398 ; 81 million dollars
937 ; 872 ; 1,129 ; 430 ; 363 million dollars
Current 42 Target 51 + 21%
Feb 16, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -7%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -30% of market cap
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
1% 7% -18% -8% 15%
6,164 ; 6,603 ; 5,416 ; 5,003 ; 5,758 million dollars
- Sales grew 15% in the fourth quarter to 5,758 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,415 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
31% 38% 28% 21% 28%
1,358 ; 1,904 ; 1,038 ; 560 ; 977 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 21% to 28% net profit from 560 to 977 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 29% now.
- We use a 31% cash profit margin to predict a 1,422 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,280 ; 1,691 ; 1,621 ; 758 ; 1,069 million dollars
-733 ; -714 ; -816 ; -851 ; -1,059 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from -93 to 10 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -1,059 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 425 million dollars now.
- We assume -860 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,020 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
8,068 ; 8,338 ; 9,492 ; 8,578 ; 8,146 million dollars
25,003 ; 24,790 ; 26,066 ; 25,746 ; 26,222 million dollars
- Cash declined 8,578 to 8,146 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 25,746 to 26,222 million dollars so net cash was down -17,168 to -18,076 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,200 million dollars equity payout -881 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -17,195 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
215 ; -169 ; -1,481 ; 398 ; 81 million dollars
937 ; 872 ; 1,129 ; 430 ; 363 million dollars
- FCX paid 444 million dollars in the fourth quarter 81 million dollars liabilities 363 million dollars equity, will pay 4,082 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 60,475 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.16 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 5% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,082 million dollars which means a 15 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 51 dollars.
SHARPFOKUS CAPITAL