FASW.jk Cashflow more positive
Current 6,150 Target 5,174 -16%
1/10/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
17% 1% -2% -2% -20%
3,247 ; 3,274 ; 3,203 ; 3,125 ; 2,499 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
7% 6% 10% 9% 8%
171 ; 108 ; 202 ; 100 ; 50 billion rupiah
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
77 ; 219 ; 149 ; 239 ; 564 billion rupiah
-102 ; -137 ; -106 ; -119 ; -173 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
171 ; 108 ; 202 ; 100 ; 50 billion rupiah
8,245 ; 8,209 ; 8,793 ; 8,746 ; 8,124 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-13 ; 51 ; 17 ; -136 ; 410 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 295 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 6,150 Target 5,174 -16%
1/10/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -23%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 4% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -53% of market cap
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
17% 1% -2% -2% -20%
3,247 ; 3,274 ; 3,203 ; 3,125 ; 2,499 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -20% in the third quarter to 2,499 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 13% now.
- This brings the average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,625 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
7% 6% 10% 9% 8%
171 ; 108 ; 202 ; 100 ; 50 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 9% to 8% profit from 100 to 50 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 8% now.
- We use a 8% cash margin to predict a 63 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
77 ; 219 ; 149 ; 239 ; 564 billion rupiah
-102 ; -137 ; -106 ; -119 ; -173 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 120 to 391 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -173 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 159 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -106 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 92 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
171 ; 108 ; 202 ; 100 ; 50 billion rupiah
8,245 ; 8,209 ; 8,793 ; 8,746 ; 8,124 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 100 to 50 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 8,746 to 8,124 billion rupiah so net cash was up -8,646 to -8,074 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -366 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,708 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-13 ; 51 ; 17 ; -136 ; 410 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 295 ; 0 billion rupiah
- FASW.jk paid 410 billion rupiah in the third quarter 410 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 366 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 15,239 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.16 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 366 billion rupiah which means a 42 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 5,174 rupiah.