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FAST less dull as capital turning positive again
FAST Current 940 Target 882 -6%
14 Jun 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 24% -24% 35% -7%
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters
-99% -96% -105% -101% -96%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-296 -125 -112 149 -194
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,730 -1,709 -1,966 -2,037 -2,183
Capital raised improved , a -6% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
101, 21, -90, -10, -0
14 Jun 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 24% -24% 35% -7%
- Sales declined -7% in the first quarter to 1,281 billion rupiah -0% below our 1,285 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,562 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters
-99% -96% -105% -101% -96%
- The cash cost ratio went from -101% to -96% profit from -94 to -20 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use the latest -96% cost ratio to predict a -8 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-296 -125 -112 149 -194
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 149 to -194 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -90 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -71 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -18 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 26 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,730 -1,709 -1,966 -2,037 -2,183
- Cash declined 601 to 397 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,638 to 2,580 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -2,037 to -2,183 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -184 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,999 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -6% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
101, 21, -90, -10, -0
- FAST 29 quarter capital raised improved -10 to 0 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -10 billion rupiah liabilities & will be positive 184 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,748 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.14 X assets with a 31 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 100 billion rupiah which means a 37 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 882 rupiah.