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Picture
FAST.jk Cashflow more negative

Current 820 Target 783 -5%

1/4/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 41%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -97% of market cap

Sales declined seasonally -9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-24% 35% -7% 24% -9%
1,028 ; 1,384 ; 1,281 ; 1,588 ; 1,447 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined seasonally -9% in the third quarter to 1,447 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 5% now.
  • This brings the average to 11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,690 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
-5% -1% 4% 8% 2%
-125 ; -94 ; -20 ; 52 ; -50 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 8% to 2% profit from 52 to -50 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 3% now.
  • We use a 3% cash margin to predict a -22 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-133 ; 389 ; -104 ; 28 ; 43 billion rupiah
21 ; -239 ; -90 ; -49 ; -101 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -21 to -58 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -101 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -31 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -49 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 4 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
531 ; 601 ; 397 ; 417 ; 340 billion rupiah
2,497 ; 2,638 ; 2,580 ; 2,578 ; 2,394 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 417 to 340 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 2,578 to 2,394 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,161 to -2,054 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -16 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,038 billion rupiah in 12 months time.​ ​
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-111 ; 80 ; 10 ; -40 ; 20 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • FAST.jk paid 20 billion rupiah in the third quarter 20 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 16 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 3,269 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.42 X assets with a 125 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 16 billion rupiah which means a 210 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 783 rupiah.
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