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FAST, a -30% lower target price
Current 980 Target 689 -30%
December 6th 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined -24%
Costs 9 points higher, a bigger loss
Cashflow, less negative, expected to turn positive
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, capital turns negative, a -30% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -24%
- Sales declined -24% in the third quarter to 1,028 billion rupiah vs our 1,252 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,429 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 9 points higher, a bigger loss
- The cash cost ratio was up 9 points at -105% in the third quarter giving a -125 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use lower -96% cost ratio to predict a -12 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, less negative, expected to turn positive
- Free cashflow improved -123 to -109 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a positive 21 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -78 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -18 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 26 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash was slightly lower from 533 to 531 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities were higher from 2,242 to 2,497 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -1,709 to -1,966 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -1,812 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, capital turns negative, a -30% lower target price
- FAST capital from the last 27 quarters turned negative -36 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 104 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be positive again 50 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,907 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.17 X assets with a 35 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 86 billion rupiah which means an 45 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -30% lower target price of 689 rupiah.