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Picture

FAPA cashflow positive again

FAPA.jk Current 4,270 Target 4,438 + 4%

12/2/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 16%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -29% of market cap

Sales declined -37%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 55% -8% 28% -37%
779 1,207 1,112 1,423 903
  • Sales declined -37% in the third quarter to 903 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 10% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,033 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
43% 33% 40% 21% 35%
189 255 304 155 118
  • The cash margin went from 21% to 35% profit from 155 to 118 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 32% now.
  • We use a 34% cash margin to predict a 191 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
212 464 429 187 370
-50 -123 88 -288 -177
  • Free cashflow went from -102 to 192 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -177 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 237 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -126 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 218 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
35 166 287 130 306
4,985 4,748 4,666 4,517 4,759
  • Cash increased 130 to 306 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 4,517 to 4,759 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,387 to -4,453 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -871 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,582 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
61 34 166 197 40
6 15 115 120 262
  • FAPA.jk paid 301 billion rupiah in the third quarter 40 billion rupiah liabilities 262 billion rupiah equity , will pay 871 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 15,498 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.86 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 871 billion rupiah which means a 18 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 4,438 rupiah.
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