FAPA sales jump again
FAPA Current 3,960 Target 5,166 + 30%
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped again 28%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
16% 4% 55% -8% 28%
753 779 1,207 1,112 1,423
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-75% -57% -67% -60% -79%
45 189 255 304 155
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
51 212 464 429 187
-40 -50 -123 88 -288
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
54 35 166 287 130
5,160 4,985 4,748 4,666 4,517
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,689 -1,622 -1,573 -1,292 -975
41 61 34 166 197
9 6 15 115 120
Aug 29, 2022
1 minute read
- FAPA last 12 months sales growth 4X average + 89%
- FAPA last 12 months cash flow 1.5X average + 6% of market cap
- FAPA last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- FAPA latest net cash -31% of market cap
Sales jumped again 28%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
16% 4% 55% -8% 28%
753 779 1,207 1,112 1,423
- Sales jumped again 28% in the second quarter to 1,423 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -23% now.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,506 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-75% -57% -67% -60% -79%
45 189 255 304 155
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -79% profit from 304 to 155 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use the average -66% cost ratio to predict a 372 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
51 212 464 429 187
-40 -50 -123 88 -288
- Free cashflow went from 517 to -102 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -288 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 230 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -108 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 391 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
54 35 166 287 130
5,160 4,985 4,748 4,666 4,517
- Cash declined 287 to 130 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,666 to 4,517 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,379 to -4,387 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -426 billion rupiah equity payout -838 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,251 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,689 -1,622 -1,573 -1,292 -975
41 61 34 166 197
9 6 15 115 120
- FAPA cumulative capital improved -1,292 to -975 billion rupiah with + 197 & + 120 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 289 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,372 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.73 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,562 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 5,166 rupiah.
