Other stocks here

FAPA, cashflow almost tripled
​Current 3,210 Target 3,930 +22%

WATCH THE VIDEO

January 20 2022
1 minute read
​
Sales grew 4%

• Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 779 billion rupiah & are up 34% from a year ago.
• This brings the quarterly average to 10% growth.
• We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 945 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Costs down profit jumped

• The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -57% profit jumped from 45 to 189 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -73% now.
• We use the Cashflow -73% cost ratio to predict a 110 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Cashflow almost tripled

• Free cashflow went from 73 to 203 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -50 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 61 billion rupiah now.
• We assume -50 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 204 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet lower leverage

• Cash declined 54 to 35 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities declined 5,160 to 4,985 billion rupiah so net cash improved -5,106 to -4,960 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -113 billion rupiah equity payout -638 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,347 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

​
Valuation, a 22% higher target price

• FAPA capital raised from the last 19 quarters improved -1,689 to -1,622 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -61 liabilities -6 billion rupiah equity payments & will be -871 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  
• At the current market value of 11,650 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.55 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 1% yield.
  
• Our cashflow forecast is 751 billion rupiah which means an 16 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price of 3,930 rupiah.
  

MODEL, DARA & CHARTS