EXCL cashflow turns positive
EXCL Current 2,430 Target 2,207 -9%
11/7/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% 2% -3% 9% 3%
6,826 6,954 6,742 7,333 7,520
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-59% -60% -60% -59% -61%
300 271 139 478 372
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,042 629 1,359 2,968 2,551
-1,571 -1,556 -2,467 -4,884 -1,936
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,670 2,664 1,415 2,008 5,765
48,763 52,664 51,603 56,081 60,964
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
12,683 12,763 12,905 10,396 8,892
150 79 142 -3,053 -1,504
56 0 0 544 0
11/7/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 10%
- Last 12 months cash flow -13% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -15% of market cap
- Latest net cash -213% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% 2% -3% 9% 3%
6,826 6,954 6,742 7,333 7,520
- Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 7,520 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,047 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-59% -60% -60% -59% -61%
300 271 139 478 372
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -61% profit from 478 to 372 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use a -60% cost ratio to predict a 651 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3,042 629 1,359 2,968 2,551
-1,571 -1,556 -2,467 -4,884 -1,936
- Free cashflow went positive from -1,916 to 616 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,936 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -834 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,936 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 131 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,670 2,664 1,415 2,008 5,765
48,763 52,664 51,603 56,081 60,964
- Cash increased 2,008 to 5,765 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 56,081 to 60,964 billion rupiah so net cash was down -54,073 to -55,199 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -523 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -50,492 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
12,683 12,763 12,905 10,396 8,892
150 79 142 -3,053 -1,504
56 0 0 544 0
- EXCL cumulative capital worsened 10,396 to 8,892 billion rupiah with -1,504 & + 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 9,415 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 25,924 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 145 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 523 billion rupiah which means a 50 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 2,207 rupiah.
