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Picture

EXCL cashflow negative again

Picture
Current 2,250 Target 2,154 -4%

Feb 20, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 9%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -11% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -20% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -191% of market cap

Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
2% -3% 9% 3% 0%
6,954 ; 6,742 ; 7,333 ; 7,520 ; 7,547 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew slightly in the fourth quarter to 7,547 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,190 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
40% 40% 41% 39% 40%
271 ; 139 ; 478 ; 372 ; 132 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 39% to 40% net profit from 372 to 132 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 40% now.
  • We use a 40% cash profit margin to predict a 643 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
629 ; 1,359 ; 2,968 ; 2,925 ; 884 billion rupiah
-1,556 ; -2,467 ; -4,884 ; -1,936 ; -2,209 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 989 to -1,325 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -2,209 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -840 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2,874 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 272 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,664 ; 1,415 ; 2,008 ; 5,765 ; 5,184 billion rupiah
52,664 ; 51,603 ; 56,081 ; 60,964 ; 61,504 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 5,765 to 5,184 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 60,964 to 61,504 billion rupiah so net cash was down -55,199 to -56,320 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,088 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -55,232 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
79 ; 142 ; -3,053 ; -2,777 ; 4,266 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 544 ; 0 ; -5,000 billion rupiah
  • EXCL.jk (raised) -734 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 4,266 billion rupiah liabilities -5,000 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,088 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 29,539 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 76 years payback & a 0% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,088 billion rupiah which means a 27 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a -4% lower target price 2,154 rupiah.
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