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EXCL still rather dull with negative cashflow
EXCL Current 3,040 Target 3,229 + 6%
May 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 8% 1% 2% -3%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-56% -57% -59% -60% -60%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,150 -276 1,471 -927 -1,108
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-44,946 -45,557 -45,093 -50,000 -50,189
Capital paid improved , a 6% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12,846 11,681 11,887 11,966 12,108
May 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 8% 1% 2% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 6,742 billion rupiah 1% above our 6,689 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,293 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-56% -57% -59% -60% -60%
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -60% profit from 271 to 139 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 439 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,150 -276 1,471 -927 -1,108
- Free cashflow went more negative from -927 to -1,108 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -2,467 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -210 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -1,556 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 610 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-44,946 -45,557 -45,093 -50,000 -50,189
- Cash declined 2,664 to 1,414 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 52,664 to 51,603 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -50,000 to -50,189 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -484 billion rupiah equity payout -5,149 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -45,040 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 6% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12,846 11,681 11,887 11,966 12,108
- EXCL 29 quarter capital paid improved 11,966 to 12,108 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -142 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 14,405 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 32,431 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.48 X assets with a 31 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,297 billion rupiah which means an 14 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 3,229 rupiah.