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ESTI a bit dull but cheap & average Cashflow is positive
ESTI Current 88.0 Target 113 + 29%
Jul 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-9% -4% 32% -11% -13%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -87% -88% -94% -90%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2.2, 0.8, 1.4, -0.0, -0.1
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-39 -38 -37 -36 -36
Capital paid improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2.4, 3.3, 4.6, 4.0, 4.5
Jul 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-9% -4% 32% -11% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the second quarter to 7 million dollars which is -1% from a year ago.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -87% -88% -94% -90%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -90% profit from 0.06 to 0.45 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the latest/average -90% cost ratio to predict a 0.5 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2.2, 0.8, 1.4, -0.0, -0.1
- Free cashflow went from -0.0 to -0.1 million dollars in the second quarter with -0.1 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 0.5 million dollars now.
- We assume -0.0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 0.9 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-39 -38 -37 -36 -36
- Cash declined 0.3 to 0.1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 37 to 36 million dollars so net cash improved -36.3 to -35.9 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0.0 million dollars equity payout -3.5 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -32.4 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2.4, 3.3, 4.6, 4.0, 4.5
- ESTI 14.0 quarter capital paid improved 4.0 to 4.5 million dollars in the second quarter with + 0.5 million dollars from liabilities 0.0 million dollars from equity & will be 8.0 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 12.2 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.25 X assets with a 14.6 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3.5 million dollars which means a 3 X valuation. A 4.5 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price 113 rupiah.
