ESSA 13% yield forecast
ESSA Current 955 Target 1,639 + 72%
October 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
44% -38% 153% 21% 7%
102 63 159 192 206
Costs up, profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-46% -113% -67% -59% -63%
29 7 40 65 62
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
11 -0 47 84 94
-1 -0 -11 -2 -1
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
92 81 111 150 132
521 508 508 467 367
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-12 4 9 53 164
0 15 6 38 111
0 0 0 5 0
October 11, 2022
1 minute read
- ESSA last 12 months sales growth + 103%
- ESSA last 12 months cash flow + 21% of market cap
- ESSA last 12 months Capital + 18% of market cap
- ESSA latest net cash -24% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
44% -38% 153% 21% 7%
102 63 159 192 206
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 206 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -30% now.
- This brings the average to 36% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 219 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up, profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-46% -113% -67% -59% -63%
29 7 40 65 62
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -63% profit from 65 to 62 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the latest -63% cost ratio to predict a 67 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
11 -0 47 84 94
-1 -0 -11 -2 -1
- Free cashflow went from 82 to 93 million dollars in the third quarter with -1 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 53 million dollars now.
- We assume -4 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 74 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
92 81 111 150 132
521 508 508 467 367
- Cash declined 150 to 132 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 467 to 367 million dollars so net cash was up -317 to -235 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -130 million dollars equity -68 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -70 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
-12 4 9 53 164
0 15 6 38 111
0 0 0 5 0
- ESSA cumulative capital improved 53 to 164 million dollars with + 111 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 362 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 997 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.11 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 285 million dollars (vs 211 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 1,639 rupiah.
