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Picture

ESSA.jk Cashflow less positive

Picture
Current 985 Target 1,596 + 62%

Feb 20, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 206%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 27% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 21% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -16% of market cap

Sales declined -15%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-38% 154% 23% 15% -15%
898 ; 2,278 ; 2,813 ; 3,237 ; 2,748 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -15% in the fourth quarter to 2,748 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 44% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,165 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
39% 34% 41% 36% 39%
94 ; 576 ; 951 ; 966 ; 854 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 36% to 39% net profit from 966 to 854 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 37% now.
  • We use a 34% cash profit margin to predict a 528 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023
.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
514 ; 673 ; 1,231 ; 1,476 ; 1,005 billion rupiah
-3 ; -158 ; -15 ; -16 ; 31 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 1,461 to 1,036 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 31 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,057 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -39 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 694 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,156 ; 1,590 ; 2,199 ; 2,073 ; 2,324 billion rupiah
7,252 ; 7,278 ; 6,846 ; 5,764 ; 4,804 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 2,073 to 2,324 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 5,764 to 4,804 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,691 to -2,481 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,066 billion rupiah equity payout -891 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -770 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
685 ; 86 ; 557 ; 1,743 ; 801 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 73 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • ESSA.jk paid 801 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 801 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,958 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 15,426 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.17 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 7% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,777 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 62% higher target price 1,596 rupiah.
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