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ESSA looking sharper as capital returns to positive
ESSA Current 760 Target 977 +29%
Mar 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -38%
Last 5 quarters
84% 33% 3% 44% -38%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -68% -93% -58% -113%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-49, 9, 5, 9, -0
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-406 -401 -464 -428 -427
Capital paid returned to positive, a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12, -525, 19, -7, 4
Mar 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -38%
Last 5 quarters
84% 33% 3% 44% -38%
- Sales declined -38% in the fourth quarter (assume an annual adjustment) to 63 million dollars -42% below our 109 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales back to 83 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-92% -68% -93% -58% -113%
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -113% profit from 29 to 7 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use -80% cost ratio to predict a 5 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-49, 9, 5, 9, -0
- Free cashflow went from 9 to -0 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -0 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6 million dollars now.
- We assume -0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 16 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-406 -401 -464 -428 -427
- Cash declined 92 to 81 million dollars in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities declined 521 to 508 million dollars so net cash improved -428 to -427 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1 million dollars equity payout -57 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -370 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid returned to positive, a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12, -525, 19, -7, 4
- ESSA 16 quarters capital paid retuned to positive -7 to 4 million dollars in the fourth quarter with a -11 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 62 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 850 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.11 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 64 million dollars which means an 13 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 977 rupiah.