ERAA negative cashflow
ERAA.jk Current 394 Target 299 -24%
11/17/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 25% -7% 4% -3%
9,822 12,286 11,480 11,920 11,541
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-96% -96% -96% -96% -96%
185 319 300 198 179
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,506 133 -651 10 118
-352 265 -218 -335 -651
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
541 521 425 852 498
4,946 4,910 7,437 8,674 9,271
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
422 -16 -438 -246 -743
-29 144 0 -152 516
11/17/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 18%
- Last 12 months cash flow -21% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -15% of market cap
- Latest net cash -140% of market cap
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 25% -7% 4% -3%
9,822 12,286 11,480 11,920 11,541
- Sales declined -3% in the third quarter to 11,541 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,708 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-96% -96% -96% -96% -96%
185 319 300 198 179
- The cash cost ratio was flat -96% profit declined from 198 to 179 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use a -96% cost ratio to predict a 301 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,506 133 -651 10 118
-352 265 -218 -335 -651
- Free cashflow went more negative from -325 to -533 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -651 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -332 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -401 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 47 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
541 521 425 852 498
4,946 4,910 7,437 8,674 9,271
- Cash declined 852 to 498 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 8,674 to 9,271 billion rupiah so net cash was down -7,822 to -8,773 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -190 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -8,583 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
422 -16 -438 -246 -743
-29 144 0 -152 516
- ERAA.jk (raised) -227 billion rupiah in the third quarter -743 billion rupiah liabilities 516 billion rupiah equity but will pay 190 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 6,264 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.37 X assets with a 87 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 190 billion rupiah which means a 33 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 299 rupiah.
