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ERAA a bit dull as raising capital again
ERAA Current 510 Target 610 + 20%
Jun 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -7%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -3% -7% 25% -7%
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -97% -97% -96% -96%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,512, 65, 1,155, 398, -869
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,912 -5,321 -4,405 -4,389 -7,012
Capital raised worsened , a 20% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,252 -707 -413 -286 -723
Jun 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -7%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -3% -7% 25% -7%
- Sales declined seasonally -7% in the first quarter to 11,480 billion rupiah -2% below our 11,672 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,603 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -97% -97% -96% -96%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -96%, profit declined from 319 to 300 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the latest -96% cost ratio to predict a 307 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,512, 65, 1,155, 398, -869
- Free cashflow went from 398 to -869 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -218 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 187 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -218 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher average 242 billion rupiah Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,912 -5,321 -4,405 -4,389 -7,012
- Cash declined 521 to 425 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,910 to 7,437 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -4,389 to -7,012 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -970 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,042 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 20% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,252 -707 -413 -286 -723
- ERAA 29 quarter capital raised worsened -286 to -723 billion rupiah in the first quarter with new 438 billion rupiah liabilities but will be 246 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,108 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 970 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 20% higher target price 610 rupiah.