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ERAA a sharp sales increase
ERAA Current 530 Target 764 + 44%
Apr 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped seasonally 25%
Last 5 quarters
26% -1% -3% -7% 25%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -96% -97% -97% -96%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,657, -2,412, 165, 1,255, 98
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,521 -5,912 -5,321 -4,405 -4,389
Capital raised worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
351, -1,151, -506, -113, -285
Apr 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped seasonally 25%
Last 5 quarters
26% -1% -3% -7% 25%
- Sales jumped seasonally 25% in the fourth quarter to 12,286 billion rupiah 9% above our 11,295 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 13,734 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -96% -97% -97% -96%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -96% profit from 185 to 319 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 290 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,657, -2,412, 165, 1,255, 98
- Free cashflow went from 1,255 to 98 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter even with 265 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is negative at -224 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -129 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 388 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,521 -5,912 -5,321 -4,405 -4,389
- Cash declined 541 to 521 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,946 to 4,910 billion rupiah so net cash improved -4,405 to -4,389 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -288 billion rupiah equity payout -911 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,327 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
351, -1,151, -506, -113, -285
- ERAA 28 quarter capital raised worsened -113 to -285 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 316 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -144 billion rupiah equity payout but will be 913 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,426 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.76 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,350 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price 764 rupiah.