EPMT a 6% yield
EPMT Current 2,810 Target 4,265 + 52%
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,456 6,585 6,857 6,799 6,926
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -95% -97% -95% -97%
181 260 176 264 170
Cashflow higher from investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-80 466 241 -203 -90
-28 -13 -95 -16 143
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
827 1,237 1,325 1,255 761
2,755 3,107 2,883 3,633 3,464
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,058 1,100 1,158 1,008 1,556
-100 40 60 -150 -5
539 3 -2 0 553
Aug 5, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,456 6,585 6,857 6,799 6,926
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 6,926 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,535 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -95% -97% -95% -97%
181 260 176 264 170
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -97% profit from 264 to 170 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 248 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher from investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-80 466 241 -203 -90
-28 -13 -95 -16 143
- Free cashflow went from -220 to 53 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 143 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 108 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives higher 263 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
827 1,237 1,325 1,255 761
2,755 3,107 2,883 3,633 3,464
- Cash declined 1,255 to 761 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,633 to 3,464 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,378 to -2,703 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -479 billion rupiah equity payout -572 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,131 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,058 1,100 1,158 1,008 1,556
-100 40 60 -150 -5
539 3 -2 0 553
- EPMT cumulative capital improved 1,008 to 1,556 billion rupiah with -5 & + 553 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,606 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,611 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.75 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,050 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 4,265 rupiah.
