EPMT 6% yield forecast
EPMT.jk Current 2,700 Target 4,133 + 53%
11/23/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 4% -1% 2% 3%
6,585 6,857 6,799 6,926 7,107
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-95% -96% -96% -96% -96%
260 176 264 170 237
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
466 241 -203 -90 -200
-13 -95 -16 143 1
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,237 1,325 1,255 761 539
3,107 2,883 3,633 3,464 3,206
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
40 60 -150 -5 20
3 -2 0 553 3
11/23/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 8%
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
- Latest net cash -36% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
2% 4% -1% 2% 3%
6,585 6,857 6,799 6,926 7,107
- Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 7,107 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,613 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-95% -96% -96% -96% -96%
260 176 264 170 237
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -96% profit increased from 170 to 237 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use a -96% cost ratio to predict a 237 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
466 241 -203 -90 -200
-13 -95 -16 143 1
- Free cashflow went negative from 53 to -199 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -55 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -16 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 254 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,237 1,325 1,255 761 539
3,107 2,883 3,633 3,464 3,206
- Cash declined 761 to 539 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,464 to 3,206 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,703 to -2,667 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -461 billion rupiah equity payout -557 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,110 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
40 60 -150 -5 20
3 -2 0 553 3
- EPMT.jk paid 23 billion rupiah in the third quarter 20 billion rupiah liabilities 3 billion rupiah equity & will pay 1,018 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 7,313 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.73 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,018 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price 4,133 rupiah.
