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EPMT a bit less sharp with lower cashflow
EPMT Current 2,860 Target 4,347 + 52%
May 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 12% 2% 4% -1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -95% -97% -96%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-246 -108 453 146 -220
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,438 -1,928 -1,870 -1,558 -2,378
Capital paid worsened , a 52% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
621 1,060 1,103 1,161 1,011
May 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 12% 2% 4% -1%
- Sales declined seasonally -1% in the first quarter to 6,799 billion rupiah 1% above our 6,720 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,426 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -95% -97% -96%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -96% profit from 176 to 264 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 249 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-246 -108 453 146 -220
- Free cashflow went negative from 146 to -220 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -16 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 68 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -16 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 272 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,438 -1,928 -1,870 -1,558 -2,378
- Cash declined 1,325 to 1,255 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,883 to 3,633 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,558 to -2,378 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -294 billion rupiah equity payout -674 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,601 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 52% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
621 1,060 1,103 1,161 1,011
- EPMT 29 quarter capital paid worsened 1,161 to 1,011 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 150 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 1,978 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,747 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.72 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,070 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 4,347 rupiah.