ENRG still negative cashflow
ENRG Current 252 Target 263 + 4%
Aug 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
8% 51% -15% 3% 4%
86 130 110 113 117
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-52% -68% -48% -62% -58%
6 6 22 10 16
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
23 27 32 36 12
-40 -68 -72 -40 -32
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
22 26 33 48 38
696 641 615 757 726
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
239 194 147 128 118
-5 79 -46 -19 -10
0 -124 0 0 0
Aug 31, 2022
1 minute read
- ENRG last 12 months sales growth above average + 36%
- ENRG last 12 months cash flow -24% of market cap
- ENRG last 12 months Capital -28% of market cap
- ENRG latest net cash -159% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
8% 51% -15% 3% 4%
86 130 110 113 117
- Sales grew 4% in the second quarter to 117 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 32% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 131 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-52% -68% -48% -62% -58%
6 6 22 10 16
- The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -58% profit from 10 to 16 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 21 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
23 27 32 36 12
-40 -68 -72 -40 -32
- Free cashflow went more negative from -4 to -20 million dollars in the second quarter with -32 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -26 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -32 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 20 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
22 26 33 48 38
696 641 615 757 726
- Cash declined 48 to 38 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 757 to 726 million dollars so net cash was up -709 to -688 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -82 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -606 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
239 194 147 128 118
-5 79 -46 -19 -10
0 -124 0 0 0
- ENRG cumulative capital worsened 128 to 118 million dollars with -10 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 200 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 431 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 82 million dollars (vs -106 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 263 rupiah.
