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ENRG, a 43% higher target price
Current 102 Target 146 +43%
January 8 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 50%
Costs -4 points, profit flat on higher non cash costs
Cashflow more negative on investment spending
Balance sheet lower leverage on new equity
Valuation, a 43% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 50%
- Sales grew 50% in the third quarter to 129 million dollars & were up 43% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 171 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs -4 points, profit flat on higher non cash costs
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -56% profit was flat at 6 million dollars in the third quarter on higher non cash costs.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use a -60% cost ratio to predict a 18 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow more negative on investment spending
- Free cashflow went from -9 to -27 million dollars in the third quarter with -68 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -7 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -54 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 14 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage on new equity
- Cash increased 22 to 26 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 696 to 641 million dollars so net cash improved -673 to -615 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -30 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -585 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 43% higher target price
- ENRG capital from the last 71 quarters worsened -731 to -776 million dollars in the third quarter with a -79 million dollars liabilities payment & 124 million dollars new equity but will be -719 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 75 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s cheap at 0.07 X assets with an 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 57 million dollars which means an 1.3 X valuation. A 1.9 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price of 146 rupiah.