EMTK looks expensive
EMTK.jk Current 1,630 Target 1,012 -38%
11/24/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-5% 3% 4% 10% 6%
3,149 3,243 3,375 3,725 3,939
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
-4% 374% 229% -71% 43%
56 5,470 4,132 -1,313 2,859
Cashflow positive from investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
545 363 -612 -339 22
-4,390 -3,347 -1,709 -1,579 4,732
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,885 7,383 6,217 6,941 8,607
2,934 4,499 4,220 4,820 5,225
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
406 -115 -14 -674 26
-1,747 -3,188 -1,120 -1,941 359
11/24/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 25%
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -7% of market cap
- Latest net cash 3% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-5% 3% 4% 10% 6%
3,149 3,243 3,375 3,725 3,939
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 3,939 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,605 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
-4% 374% 229% -71% 43%
56 5,470 4,132 -1,313 2,859
- The cash margin went from -71% to 43% profit from -1,313 to 2,859 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 144% now.
- We use a 3% cash margin to predict a -258 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive from investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
545 363 -612 -339 22
-4,390 -3,347 -1,709 -1,579 4,732
- Free cashflow went from -1,917 to 4,754 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 4,732 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -617 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -83 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 31 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
5,885 7,383 6,217 6,941 8,607
2,934 4,499 4,220 4,820 5,225
- Cash increased 6,941 to 8,607 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,820 to 5,225 billion rupiah so net cash was up 2,121 to 3,382 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -123 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 3,505 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
406 -115 -14 -674 26
-1,747 -3,188 -1,120 -1,941 359
- EMTK.jk paid 385 billion rupiah in the third quarter 26 billion rupiah liabilities 359 billion rupiah equity & will pay 123 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 99,426 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.29 X assets with a 431 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 123 billion rupiah which means a 805 X valuation. A 500 X valuation gives a -38% lower target price 1,012 rupiah.
