Other stocks here
EMTK dull with still negative cashflow
EMTK Current 2,000 Target 880 -56%
May 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 6% -5% 3% 4%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-139% -135% -146% 27% -91%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
42 -2,538 -3,845 -2,984 -2,321
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,937 5,144 2,951 2,884 1,997
Capital raised worsened , a -56% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9,425 -8,254 -9,594 -12,897 -14,031
May 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 6% -5% 3% 4%
- Sales grew 4% in the first quarter to 3,375 billion rupiah -3% below our 3,463 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,941 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-139% -135% -146% 27% -91%
- The cash cost ratio went from 27% to -91% profit from 5,470 to 4,132 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the latest -91% cost ratio to predict a 4,181 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
42 -2,538 -3,845 -2,984 -2,321
- Free cashflow went less negative from -2,984 to -2,321 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,709 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,922 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1,709 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -1,368 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,937 5,144 2,951 2,884 1,997
- Cash declined 7,383 to 6,217 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,499 to 4,220 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 2,884 to 1,997 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 5,515 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,509 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -56% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9,425 -8,254 -9,594 -12,897 -14,031
- EMTK 25 quarter capital raised worsened -12,897 to -14,031 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 14 billion rupiah new liabilities 1,120 billion rupiah new equity & will be -19,546 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 120,843 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.9 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 1,329 billion rupiah which means a high 91 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -56% lower target price 880 rupiah.