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EMTK dull with still negative cashflow

EMTK Current 2,000 Target 880 -56%

May 23, 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 6% -5% 3% 4%
  • Sales grew 4% in the first quarter to 3,375 billion rupiah -3% below our 3,463 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,941 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-139% -135% -146% 27% -91%
  • The cash cost ratio went from 27% to -91% profit from 5,470 to 4,132 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
  • We use the latest -91% cost ratio to predict a 4,181 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.

​Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
42 -2,538 -3,845 -2,984 -2,321
  • Free cashflow went less negative from -2,984 to -2,321 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,709 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,922 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -1,709 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -1,368 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,937 5,144 2,951 2,884 1,997
  • Cash declined 7,383 to 6,217 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 4,499 to 4,220 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 2,884 to 1,997 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 5,515 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,509 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised worsened , a -56% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-9,425 -8,254 -9,594 -12,897 -14,031
  • EMTK 25 quarter capital raised worsened -12,897 to -14,031 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 14 billion rupiah new liabilities 1,120 billion rupiah new equity & will be -19,546 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 120,843 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.9 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our operating cashflow forecast is 1,329 billion rupiah which means a high 91 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a -56% lower target price 880 rupiah.
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