EMTK still negative cashflow
EMTK Current 1,980 Target 1,163 -41%
Aug 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% -5% 3% 4% 10%
3,324 3,149 3,243 3,375 3,725
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-81% -89% -125% -77% -93%
276 56 5,470 4,132 -1,313
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
84 545 363 -612 -339
-2,622 -4,390 -3,347 -1,709 -1,579
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
8,430 5,885 7,383 6,217 6,941
3,286 2,934 4,499 4,220 4,820
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-8,254 -9,594 -12,897 -14,031 -16,645
1,182 406 -115 -14 -674
-11 -1,747 -3,188 -1,120 -1,941
Aug 17, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -7% of market cap
- Latest net cash + 2% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% -5% 3% 4% 10%
3,324 3,149 3,243 3,375 3,725
- Sales grew 10% in the second quarter to 3,725 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,913 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-81% -89% -125% -77% -93%
276 56 5,470 4,132 -1,313
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -93% profit from 4,132 to -1,313 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use -93% cost ratio to predict a 137 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
84 545 363 -612 -339
-2,622 -4,390 -3,347 -1,709 -1,579
- Free cashflow went less negative from -2,321 to -1,917 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,579 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,767 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,423 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -1,170 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
8,430 5,885 7,383 6,217 6,941
3,286 2,934 4,499 4,220 4,820
- Cash increased 6,217 to 6,941 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,220 to 4,820 billion rupiah so net cash was up 1,997 to 2,121 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 4,678 billion rupiah new liabilities net cash will be -2,557 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-8,254 -9,594 -12,897 -14,031 -16,645
1,182 406 -115 -14 -674
-11 -1,747 -3,188 -1,120 -1,941
- EMTK cumulative capital worsened -14,031 to -16,645 billion rupiah with -674 & -1,941 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -21,324 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 120,776 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.5 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 1,013 billion rupiah which means a 119 X valuation. A 70 X valuation gives a -41% lower target price 1,163 rupiah.
