ELSA at 3X Cashflow
ELSA Current 344 Target 661 + 92%
11/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 20% 1% 22% 6%
2,007 2,417 2,445 2,976 3,152
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -90% -91% -89% -92%
-3 71 75 151 64
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
25 550 257 244 380
-83 -113 -110 -122 -120
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
763 1,145 1,134 1,253 1,467
3,352 3,457 3,589 4,270 4,628
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
597 662 842 802 838
114 65 180 -39 -19
75 0 0 0 54
11/11/2022
1 minute read
- ELSA last 12 months sales growth + 57%
- ELSA last 12 months cash flow + 39% of market cap
- ELSA last 12 months Capital + 10% of market cap
- ELSA latest net cash -126% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 20% 1% 22% 6%
2,007 2,417 2,445 2,976 3,152
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 3,152 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,475 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -90% -91% -89% -92%
-3 71 75 151 64
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -92% profit from 151 to 64 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a -89% cost ratio to predict a 218 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
25 550 257 244 380
-83 -113 -110 -122 -120
- Free cashflow went from 122 to 261 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -120 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 242 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -117 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 201 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
763 1,145 1,134 1,253 1,467
3,352 3,457 3,589 4,270 4,628
- Cash increased 1,253 to 1,467 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,270 to 4,628 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,017 to -3,161 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -83 billion rupiah equity payout -721 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,185 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
597 662 842 802 838
114 65 180 -39 -19
75 0 0 0 54
- ELSA cumulative capital improved 802 to 838 billion rupiah with -19 & + 54 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,642 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,511 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.30 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 804 billion rupiah (vs 967 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 92% higher target price 661 rupiah.
