ELSA at 4X Cashflow
ELSA Current 342 Target 709 + 107%
17 Sep 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% 6% 20% 1% 22%
1,893 2,007 2,417 2,445 2,976
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -93% -90% -91% -89%
39 -3 71 75 151
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 25 550 257 244
-56 -83 -113 -110 -122
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,011 763 1,145 1,134 1,253
3,304 3,352 3,457 3,589 4,270
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
408 597 662 842 802
164 114 65 180 -39
0 75 0 0 0
17 Sep 2022
1 minute read
- ELSA last 12 months sales growth 3X average + 57%
- ELSA last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 26% of market cap
- ELSA last 12 months Capital 16X average + 16% of market cap
- ELSA latest net cash -121% of market cap
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
4% 6% 20% 1% 22%
1,893 2,007 2,417 2,445 2,976
- Sales jumped 22% in the second quarter to 2,976 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,970 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -93% -90% -91% -89%
39 -3 71 75 151
- The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -89% profit from 75 to 151 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use the latest -89% cost ratio to predict a 151 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 25 550 257 244
-56 -83 -113 -110 -122
- Free cashflow went from 147 to 122 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -122 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 162 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -116 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 162 billion rupiah average Cashflow again in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,011 763 1,145 1,134 1,253
3,304 3,352 3,457 3,589 4,270
- Cash increased 1,134 to 1,253 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,589 to 4,270 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,455 to -3,017 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -62 billion rupiah equity payout -585 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,177 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
408 597 662 842 802
164 114 65 180 -39
0 75 0 0 0
- ELSA cumulative capital worsened 842 to 802 billion rupiah with -39 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,449 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,496 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with an 11 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 647 billion rupiah (vs 648 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 107% higher target price 709 rupiah.
