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ELSA looking very sharp as Cashflow leaps
ELSA Current 326 Target 634 +95%
March 10 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters
6% -8% 4% 6% 20%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -90% -88% -93% -90%
Cashflow leaps with help from working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 91, -79, -58, 437
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,590 -2,378 -2,293 -2,589 -2,312
Capital paid improved, a 95% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
171, 244, 408, 597, 662
March 10 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters
6% -8% 4% 6% 20%
- Sales jumped 20% in the fourth quarter to 2,417 billion rupiah 9% above our 2,208 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,770 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -90% -88% -93% -90%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -90% profit from -3 to 71 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the latest -90% cost ratio to predict a 105 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow leaps with help from working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 91, -79, -58, 437
- Free cashflow leapt from -58 to 437 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -113 billion rupiah investment spending & helped by working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 98 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -98 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 112 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,590 -2,378 -2,293 -2,589 -2,312
- Cash increased 763 to 1,145 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 3,352 to 3,457 billion rupiah so net cash improved -2,589 to -2,312 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -108 billion rupiah equity payout -530 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,782 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 95% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
171, 244, 408, 597, 662
- ELSA 28 quarters capital paid improved 597 to 662 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -65 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 1,047 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,379 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.34 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 386 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 95% higher target price of 634 rupiah.