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EDGE dull with negative cashflow again
EDGE Current 19,700 Target 14,927 -24%
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
4% 30% -2% 5% 7%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -72% -73% -71% -74%
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-54, -286, -13, 41, -20
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
280, -22, -5, 97, 76
Capital raised flat , a -24% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-371 -371 -371 -371 -371
May 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters
4% 30% -2% 5% 7%
- Sales grew 7% in the first quarter to 180 billion rupiah 8% above our 167 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 229 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -72% -73% -71% -74%
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -74% profit from 37 to 34 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use the average -73% cost ratio to predict a 50 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-54, -286, -13, 41, -20
- Free cashflow went negative again from 41 to -20 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -43 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -70 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -13 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 50 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
280, -22, -5, 97, 76
- Cash declined 336 to 316 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 239 to 240 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 97 to 76 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -133 billion rupiah equity payout -45 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 131 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised flat , a -24% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-371 -371 -371 -371 -371
- EDGE 21 quarter capital raised was flat at -371 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be -193 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,960 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 6.04 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 188 billion rupiah which means a 42 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 14,927 rupiah.