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DVLA looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast
DVLA Current 2,620 Target 4,197 + 60%
Jul 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 96%
Last 5 quarters
-11% -0% 22% -45% 96%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -86% -75% -132% -76%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
70, 82, 56, 212, -188
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-290 -209 -258 -122 -283
Capital paid improved , a 60% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
349, 349, 402, 451, 457
Jul 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 96%
Last 5 quarters
-11% -0% 22% -45% 96%
- Sales jumped 96% in the first quarter to 646 billion rupiah, up 32% from a year ago.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 701 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-80% -86% -75% -132% -76%
- The cash cost ratio went from -132% to -76% profit from -121 to 137 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use a -86% cost ratio to predict a 86 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
70, 82, 56, 212, -188
- Free cashflow went from 212 to -188 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -15 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 41 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 86 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-290 -209 -258 -122 -283
- Cash declined 583 to 391 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 705 to 674 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -122 to -283 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -193 billion rupiah equity payout -120 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -163 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 60% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
349, 349, 402, 451, 457
- DVLA 17 quarter capital paid improved 451 to 457 billion rupiah in the first quarter with + 6 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be 770 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,934 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.34 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 313 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 60% higher target price 4,197 rupiah.
