DVLA 6% yield forecast
DVLA.jk Current 2,420 Target 2,908 + 20%
11/27/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
23% 84% -20% 2% 18%
522 960 766 782 920
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% -11% 20% 6% 1%
135 -121 137 32 -4
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
69 155 -173 179 -61
-12 52 -15 -5 -21
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
421 583 391 553 384
679 705 674 597 622
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-29 6 6 16 2
82 43 0 0 84
11/27/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 76%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- Latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
23% 84% -20% 2% 18%
522 960 766 782 920
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 920 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,074 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% -11% 20% 6% 1%
135 -121 137 32 -4
- The cash margin went from 6% to 1% profit from 32 to -4 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 4% now.
- We use a 9% cash margin to predict a 82 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
69 155 -173 179 -61
-12 52 -15 -5 -21
- Free cashflow went from 174 to -82 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -21 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 28 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -21 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 74 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
421 583 391 553 384
679 705 674 597 622
- Cash declined 553 to 384 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 597 to 622 billion rupiah so net cash was down -44 to -238 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -160 billion rupiah equity payout -115 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -102 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-29 6 6 16 2
82 43 0 0 84
- DVLA.jk paid 86 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2 billion rupiah liabilities 84 billion rupiah equity & will pay 275 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 2,710 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.28 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 296 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 20% higher target price 2,908 rupiah.
