DUTI cashflow more positive
Current 4,700 Target 6,841 + 46%
Mar 17, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
29% -27% 8% 33% 4%
832 ; 605 ; 651 ; 865 ; 896 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
37% 25% 29% 32% 43%
270 ; 113 ; 151 ; 237 ; 346 billion rupiah
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
321 ; 624 ; 78 ; -6 ; 456 billion rupiah
-9 ; -6 ; 68 ; 82 ; -128 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
3,375 ; 4,038 ; 3,162 ; 3,144 ; 3,498 billion rupiah
4,347 ; 4,904 ; 4,669 ; 4,506 ; 4,660 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-21 ; -45 ; 326 ; -119 ; 1 billion rupiah
64 ; 0 ; 697 ; 213 ; -26 billion rupiah
Mar 17, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 8%, vs 2019 -69%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 13% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 12% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -13% of market cap
- 0.56X assets with a 9 years payback
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
29% -27% 8% 33% 4%
832 ; 605 ; 651 ; 865 ; 896 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 896 billion rupiah .
- This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,329 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
37% 25% 29% 32% 43%
270 ; 113 ; 151 ; 237 ; 346 billion rupiah
- The cash profit margin went from 32% to 43% net profit from 237 to 346 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 32% now.
- We use a 34% cash profit margin to predict a 420 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
321 ; 624 ; 78 ; -6 ; 456 billion rupiah
-9 ; -6 ; 68 ; 82 ; -128 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 76 to 328 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -128 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 292 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -23 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 352 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
3,375 ; 4,038 ; 3,162 ; 3,144 ; 3,498 billion rupiah
4,347 ; 4,904 ; 4,669 ; 4,506 ; 4,660 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 3,144 to 3,498 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,506 to 4,660 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,362 to -1,162 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,355 billion rupiah equity payout -51 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,111 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-21 ; -45 ; 326 ; -119 ; 1 billion rupiah
64 ; 0 ; 697 ; 213 ; -26 billion rupiah
- DUTI.jk (raised) -25 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 1 billion rupiah liabilities -26 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,406 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 8,695 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 16% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,406 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 46% higher target price 6,841 rupiah.