DSNG at 0.38X assets
DSNG Current 510 Target 1,028 + 101%
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales up another 31%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 18% -21% 30% 31%
1,755 2,072 1,645 2,142 2,799
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -77% -78% -80% -75%
211 316 209 258 431
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
125 500 336 20 672
-213 366 -241 -258 -343
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
318 420 390 317 346
7,442 6,687 6,941 7,202 6,939
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,443 -727 -598 -633 -429
159 803 129 -247 204
0 -87 0 212 0
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
- DSNG last 12 months sales growth + 59%
- DSNG last 12 months cash flow + 19% of market cap
- DSNG last 12 months Capital + 18% of market cap
- DSNG latest net cash -118% of market cap
Sales up another 31%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 18% -21% 30% 31%
1,755 2,072 1,645 2,142 2,799
- Sales were up another 31% in the third quarter to 2,799 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0.2% now.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,853 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -77% -78% -80% -75%
211 316 209 258 431
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -75% profit from 258 to 431 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 385 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
125 500 336 20 672
-213 366 -241 -258 -343
- Free cashflow went positive again from -239 to 329 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -343 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 263 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -281 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 351 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
318 420 390 317 346
7,442 6,687 6,941 7,202 6,939
- Cash increased 317 to 346 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 7,202 to 6,939 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,885 to -6,593 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -187 billion rupiah equity payout -1,215 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,378 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,443 -727 -598 -633 -429
159 803 129 -247 204
0 -87 0 212 0
- DSNG cumulative capital improved -633 to -429 billion rupiah with + 204 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 973 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,568 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,402 billion rupiah (vs 1,051 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 101% higher target price 1,028 rupiah.
