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DSNG a bit less sharp as sales/cashflow decline
DSNG Current 620 Target 723 + 17%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -21%
-29% 1% 6% 18% -21%
Costs up profit down
-85% -84% -79% -77% -78%
Cashflow lower
33, 38, -88, 866, 95
Balance sheet net cash worsened
-7,251, -7,345, -7,124, -6,267, -6,555
Capital raised improved , a 17% higher target price
-1,689, -1,612, -1,453, -738, -609
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -21%
-29% 1% 6% 18% -21%
- Sales declined -21% in the first quarter to 1,645 billion rupiah -20% below our 2,051 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,958 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
-85% -84% -79% -77% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -78% profit from 316 to 209 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 241 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
33, 38, -88, 866, 95
- Free cashflow went from 866 to 95 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -241 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 228 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -241 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 160 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
-7,251, -7,345, -7,124, -6,267, -6,555
- Cash declined 420 to 386 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,687 to 6,941 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -6,267 to -6,555 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -91 billion rupiah equity payout -489 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,066 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 17% higher target price
-1,689, -1,612, -1,453, -738, -609
- DSNG capital from the last 33 quarters improved -738 to -609 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -129 liabilities payment & will be -28 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,969 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.41 X assets with a 24 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 580 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation.
- A 12 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 723 rupiah.