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DSNG at 0.38X assets

DSNG Current 510 Target 1,028 + 101%

Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read

  • DSNG last 12 months sales growth + 59%
  • DSNG last 12 months cash flow + 19% of market cap
  • DSNG last 12 months Capital + 18% of market cap
  • DSNG latest net cash -118% of market cap

Sales up another 31%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 18% -21% 30% 31%
1,755 2,072 1,645 2,142 2,799
  • Sales were up another 31% in the third quarter to 2,799 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0.2% now.
  • This brings the average to 15% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,853 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -77% -78% -80% -75%
211 316 209 258 431
  • The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -75% profit from 258 to 431 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
  • We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 385 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
125 500 336 20 672
-213 366 -241 -258 -343
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -239 to 329 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -343 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 263 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -281 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 351 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
318 420 390 317 346
7,442 6,687 6,941 7,202 6,939
  • Cash increased 317 to 346 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 7,202 to 6,939 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,885 to -6,593 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -187 billion rupiah equity payout -1,215 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,378 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,443 -727 -598 -633 -429
159 803 129 -247 204
0 -87 0 212 0
  • DSNG cumulative capital improved -633 to -429 billion rupiah with + 204 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 973 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 5,568 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 3% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,402 billion rupiah (vs 1,051 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 101% higher target price 1,028 rupiah.
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