DSNG sales up 30%!
DSNG Current 530 Target 746 + 41%
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 30%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,661 1,755 2,072 1,645 2,142
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -79% -77% -78% -80%
Last 12 months cashflow + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
38 -88 866 95 -239
Last 12 months change in net cash + 8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,345 -7,124 -6,267 -6,551 -6,885
Last 12 months Capital + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,602 -1,443 -727 -598 -633
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 30%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,661 1,755 2,072 1,645 2,142
- Sales grew 30% in the second quarter to 2,142 billion rupiah 22% above our 1,760 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,324 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -79% -77% -78% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -80% profit from 209 to 258 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -79% cost ratio to predict a 309 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Last 12 months cashflow + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
38 -88 866 95 -239
- Free cashflow went from 95 to -239 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -258 billion rupiah investment cashflow & negative working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 158 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -250 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 220 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Last 12 months change in net cash + 8% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,345 -7,124 -6,267 -6,551 -6,885
- Cash declined 390 to 317 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,941 to 6,941 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -6,551 to -6,624 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -150 billion rupiah equity payout -729 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,126 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months Capital + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,602 -1,443 -727 -598 -633
- DSNG 34 quarter capital worsened -598 to -633 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -247 billion rupiah from liabilities + 212 billion rupiah from equity but will be positive 246 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,618 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.38 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 879 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 41% higher target price 746 rupiah.
