DRMA cashflow less negative
DRMA.jk Current 660 Target 422 -36%
11/26/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 59%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 8% 10% -26% 59%
772 834 916 674 1,069
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 22% 16% 9% 13%
48 157 117 28 107
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
58 165 40 -5 91
-23 -67 0 -79 -93
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
415 415 429 236 173
1,455 1,455 1,406 1,189 1,235
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
21 28 -26 91 59
0 -292 0 70 2
11/26/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 38%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -34% of market cap
Sales grew 59%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
22% 8% 10% -26% 59%
772 834 916 674 1,069
- Sales grew 59% in the third quarter to 1,069 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,454 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 22% 16% 9% 13%
48 157 117 28 107
- The cash margin went from 9% to 13% profit from 28 to 107 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 15% now.
- We use a 9% cash margin to predict a 101 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
58 165 40 -5 91
-23 -67 0 -79 -93
- Free cashflow went from -84 to -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -93 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 13 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -93 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 25 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
415 415 429 236 173
1,455 1,455 1,406 1,189 1,235
- Cash declined 236 to 173 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,189 to 1,235 billion rupiah so net cash was down -953 to -1,062 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -99 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -963 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
21 28 -26 91 59
0 -292 0 70 2
- DRMA.jk paid 61 billion rupiah in the third quarter 59 billion rupiah liabilities 2 billion rupiah equity & will pay 99 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 3,106 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.13 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 99 billion rupiah which means a 31 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -36% lower target price 422 rupiah.
