DPZ much higher cashflow
DPZ Current 302 Target 370 + 23%
October 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-3% 35% -25% 5% 0%
998 1,343 1,011 1,065 1,069
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-87% -94% -88% -88% -88%
121 156 91 103 100
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
186 166 79 74 177
-17 -52 -21 -19 -19
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
295 148 165 114 115
5,892 5,882 5,873 5,851 5,960
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,848 2,002 2,063 2,169 2,306
13 14 14 14 -107
109 140 47 92 244
October 13, 2022
1 minute read
- DPZ last 12 months sales growth + 7%
- DPZ last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- DPZ last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- DPZ latest net cash -54% of market cap
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
-3% 35% -25% 5% 0%
998 1,343 1,011 1,065 1,069
- Sales grew 0% in the third quarter to 1,069 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,143 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-87% -94% -88% -88% -88%
121 156 91 103 100
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -88% profit declined from 103 to 100 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -89% now.
- We use the latest -88% cost ratio to predict a 109 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
186 166 79 74 177
-17 -52 -21 -19 -19
- Free cashflow went from 55 to 158 million dollars in the third quarter with -19 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 96 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -19 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 123 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
295 148 165 114 115
5,892 5,882 5,873 5,851 5,960
- Cash increased 114 to 115 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,851 to 5,960 million dollars so net cash was down -5,737 to -5,845 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & -179 million dollars equity -313 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -5,532 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,848 2,002 2,063 2,169 2,306
13 14 14 14 -107
109 140 47 92 244
- DPZ cumulative capital improved 2,169 to 2,306 million dollars with -107 & + 244 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,798 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,829 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 6.8 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 492 million dollars (vs 388 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 22 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 23% higher target price 370 dollars.
