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DPZ less sharp as sales growth slows
DPZ Current 381 Target 373 -2%
Jun 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -25%
Last 5 quarters
-27% 5% -3% 35% -25%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -86% -87% -94% -88%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
97, 125, 172, 117, 58
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,631 -5,570 -5,597 -5,734 -5,708
Capital paid improved , a -2% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,666, 1,726, 1,848, 2,002, 2,063
Jun 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -25%
Last 5 quarters
-27% 5% -3% 35% -25%
- Sales declined seasonally -25% in the first quarter to 1,011 million dollars -6% below our 1,078 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,099 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -86% -87% -94% -88%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -88% profit from 156 to 91 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -89% now.
- We use a lower -88% cost ratio to predict a 119 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
97, 125, 172, 117, 58
- Free cashflow went from 117 to 58 million dollars in the first quarter with -21 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 118 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -21 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 111 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-4,631 -5,570 -5,597 -5,734 -5,708
- Cash increased 148 to 165 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 5,882 to 5,873 million dollars so net cash improved -5,734 to -5,708 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -824 million dollars equity payout -1,553 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -5,443 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a -2% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,666, 1,726, 1,848, 2,002, 2,063
- DPZ 29 quarter capital paid improved 2,002 2,063 million dollars in the first quarter with -14 million dollars liabilities -47 million dollars equity payments & will be 2,527 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,715 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 8.0 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 464 million dollars which means a 30 X valuation. A 29 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 373 rupiah.