DOID at 2X Cashflow
DOID Current 384 Target 548 + 43%
11/9/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
31% 27% 6% 18% 9%
248 314 332 391 426
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-77% -81% -83% -84% -83%
17 16 -1 6 15
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
-6 41 -2 59 38
-93 -221 -95 -42 -8
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
357 194 138 133 152
1,144 1,370 1,372 1,350 1,341
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-158 -176 -215 -197 -190
-350 -18 -42 1 6
0 0 3 17 1
11/9/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 72%
- Last 12 months cash flow -104% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -15% of market cap
- Latest net cash -539% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
31% 27% 6% 18% 9%
248 314 332 391 426
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 426 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 475 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-77% -81% -83% -84% -83%
17 16 -1 6 15
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -83% profit from 6 to 15 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 23 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
-6 41 -2 59 38
-93 -221 -95 -42 -8
- Free cashflow went from 17 to 30 million dollars in the third quarter with -8 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -58 million dollars now.
- We assume -25 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 26 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
357 194 138 133 152
1,144 1,370 1,372 1,350 1,341
- Cash increased 133 to 152 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,350 to 1,341 million dollars so net cash was up -1,217 to -1,189 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -105 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -974 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-158 -176 -215 -197 -190
-350 -18 -42 1 6
0 0 3 17 1
- DOID cumulative capital improved -197 to -190 million dollars with + 6 & + 1 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -85 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 221 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.15 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 105 million dollars which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price 548 rupiah.
