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DNET less dull as cashflow has turned positive, but expensive
DNET Current 3,250 Target 2,631 -19%
Jun 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -28%
Last 5 quarters
-21% 36% 15% 47% -28%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-23% -38% -43% -34% -22%
Cashflow a bit lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
137, 213, 97, 218, 200
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,750 -6,575 -6,445 -6,385 -6,047
Capital raised worsened , a -19% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,949 -6,837 -6,782 -6,675 -6,689
Jun 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -28%
Last 5 quarters
-21% 36% 15% 47% -28%
- Sales declined seasonally -28% in the first quarter to 225 billion rupiah -12% below our 255 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average quarterly growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 364 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-23% -38% -43% -34% -22%
- The cash cost ratio went from -34% to -22% profit from 562 to 315 billion rupiah in the first quarter on lower associate income.
- The average cost ratio is at -34% now.
- We use a higher -43% cost ratio to predict a 466 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow a bit lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
137, 213, 97, 218, 200
- Free cashflow went from 218 to 200 billion rupiah in the first quarter mostly from 189 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 182 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 207 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,750 -6,575 -6,445 -6,385 -6,047
- Cash increased 440 to 654 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 6,825 to 6,701 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,385 to -6,047 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -735 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -5,312 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -19% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,949 -6,837 -6,782 -6,675 -6,689
- DNET 25 quarter capital raised worsened -6,675 to -6,689 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -86 billion rupiah liabilities, + 100 billion rupiah equity but will improve to -5,945 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 46,098 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.4 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 829 billion rupiah which means a 56 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 2,631 rupiah .