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Picture

DNET lower Cashflow

DNET.jk Current 3,710 Target 2,450 -34%

12/8/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 35%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -11% of market cap

Sales grew 17%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
15% 47% -28% 9% 17%
212 ; 312 ; 225 ; 245 ; 286
  • Sales grew 17% in the third quarter to 286 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
  • This brings the average to 11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 306 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
57% 66% 78% 65% 64%
134 ; 562 ; 315 ; 330 ; 341
  • The cash margin went from 65% to 64% profit from 330 to 341 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 68% now.
  • We use a 13% cash margin (from cashflow) to predict a 197 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-33 ; 9 ; 11 ; 50 ; 34
119 ; 198 ; 189 ; 240 ; 149
  • Free cashflow went from 290 to 183 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 149 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 220 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 17 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 58 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
328 ; 440 ; 654 ; 530 ; 775
6,773 ; 6,825 ; 6,701 ; 6,579 ; 6,669
  • Cash increased 530 to 775 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 6,579 to 6,669 billion rupiah so net cash was up -6,049 to -5,894 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -232 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,662 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
130 ; 133 ; 86 ; 169 ; -62
-75 ; -70 ; -100 ; 245 ; 0
  • DNET.jk (raised) -62 billion rupiah in the third quarter -62 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 232 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 52,623 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.73 X assets with a 80 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 232 billion rupiah which means a 227 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -34% lower target price 2,450 rupiah.
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