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DNET, a -34% lower target price
Current 3,210 Target 2,109 -34%

December 7th 2021
1 minute read

Sales grew another 15%
  1. Sales grew another 15% in the third quarter to 212 billion rupiah vs our 192 billion rupiah forecast.
  2. This brings the quarterly average to 21% growth.
  3. We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 271 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 5 points higher, profit drops
  • The cash cost ratio was 5 points higher at -43% in the third quarter giving a lower 134 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is still above 100% at -112% now.
  • We use a -99% cost ratio to predict a 15 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow positive on investment gains, expected negative
  • Free cashflow was positive 97 billion rupiah in the third quarter thanks to a positive 119 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -83 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -28 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -26 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, lower leverage
  • Cash increased from 287 to 328 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined from 6,862 to 6,773 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -6,575 to -6,445 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -18 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -6,568 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 34% lower target price
  • DNET capital from the last 23 quarters improved to -6,782 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -130 billion rupiah liabilities payment & 75 billion rupiah new equity & will be -6,887 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 45,531 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.6 X assets with a years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12 month sales forecast is 997 billion rupiah which means an 46 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a -34% lower target price of 2,109 rupiah.
Data file & model
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA