DMMX cashflow still negative
DMMX Current 1,295 Target 943 -27%
Aug 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -35%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 93% 23% 29% -35%
183 352 435 560 365
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-95% -97% -97% -97% -97%
106 111 13 7 4
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
26 -46 48 -20 -5
-7 -49 -77 -18 -5
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
298 197 241 201 204
127 116 135 141 154
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-653 -646 -719 -718 -730
-45 20 -60 1 -12
-1 -13 -13 0 0
Aug 23, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
- Latest net cash + 1% of market cap
Sales declined -35%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 93% 23% 29% -35%
183 352 435 560 365
- Sales declined -35% in the second quarter to 365 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 27% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 404 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-95% -97% -97% -97% -97%
106 111 13 7 4
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -97% profit declined from 7 to 4 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use the average -97% cost ratio to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
26 -46 48 -20 -5
-7 -49 -77 -18 -5
- Free cashflow went less negative from -39 to -10 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -5 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -43 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -5 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
298 197 241 201 204
127 116 135 141 154
- Cash increased 201 to 204 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 141 to 154 billion rupiah so net cash was down 60 to 50 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3 billion rupiah equity payout -54 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 70 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-653 -646 -719 -718 -730
-45 20 -60 1 -12
-1 -13 -13 0 0
- DMMX cumulative capital worsened -718 to -730 billion rupiah with -12 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -673 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 9,401 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 9 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 23 billion rupiah which means a 412 X valuation. A 300 X valuation gives a -27% lower target price 943 rupiah.
