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DMMX, a -44% lower target price
Current 3,210 Target 1,788 -44%
November 12th 2021
1 minute read
Sales soared 93%
Costs 2 points higher
Cashflow, ready to turn positive
Balance sheet, lower cash
Valuation, a -44% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales soared 93%
- Sales soared 93% in the third quarter to 352 billion rupiah vs our 196 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 33% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 476 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 2 points higher
- The cash cost ratio was 2 points higher at -97% in the third quarter giving a 111 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is finally below 100% at -94% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 18 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, ready to turn positive
- Free cashflow was lower s -48 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -3 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is ready to turn positive at -1 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 20 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower cash
- Cash declined from 298 to 197 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 127 to 116 billion rupiah so net cash declined from 171 to 81 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -19 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 133 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -44% lower target price
- DMMX capital from the last 11 quarters improved slightly to -646 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -605 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,090 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 18 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 142 billion rupiah which means an 135 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a -44% lower target price of 1,788 rupiah.