DMMX still expensive
DMMX.jk Current 1,140 Target 919 -19%
11/30/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
93% 23% 29% -35% 11%
352 435 560 365 403
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
63% 5% 3% 4% 2%
111 13 7 4 2
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-46 48 -20 -5 23
-49 -77 -18 -5 -14
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
197 241 201 204 239
116 135 141 154 147
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
20 -60 1 -12 -26
-13 -13 0 0 0
11/30/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 14%
- Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
- Latest net cash 1% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
93% 23% 29% -35% 11%
352 435 560 365 403
- Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 403 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 466 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
63% 5% 3% 4% 2%
111 13 7 4 2
- The cash margin went from 4% to 2% profit from 4 to 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 3% now.
- We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 10 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-46 48 -20 -5 23
-49 -77 -18 -5 -14
- Free cashflow went from -10 to 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -14 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -17 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -10 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
197 241 201 204 239
116 135 141 154 147
- Cash increased 204 to 239 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 154 to 147 billion rupiah so net cash was up 50 to 92 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 125 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
20 -60 1 -12 -26
-13 -13 0 0 0
- DMMX.jk (raised) -26 billion rupiah in the third quarter -26 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity , will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 8,276 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 7.37 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 33 billion rupiah which means a 248 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 919 rupiah.