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Picture

DMMX still expensive

DMMX.jk Current 1,140 Target 919 -19%

11/30/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 14%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 1% of market cap
​
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
93% 23% 29% -35% 11%
352 435 560 365 403
  • Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 403 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 466 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
63% 5% 3% 4% 2%
111 13 7 4 2
  • The cash margin went from 4% to 2% profit from 4 to 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 3% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 10 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-46 48 -20 -5 23
-49 -77 -18 -5 -14
  • Free cashflow went from -10 to 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -14 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -17 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -10 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
197 241 201 204 239
116 135 141 154 147
  • Cash increased 204 to 239 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 154 to 147 billion rupiah so net cash was up 50 to 92 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 125 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
20 -60 1 -12 -26
-13 -13 0 0 0
  • DMMX.jk (raised) -26 billion rupiah in the third quarter -26 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity , will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 8,276 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 7.37 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 33 billion rupiah which means a 248 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 919 rupiah.
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