DLTA 9% yield forecast
DLTA.jk Current 3,840 Target 5,683 + 48%
11/18/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
28% 14% 1% -7% 9%
173 198 199 186 203
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-69% -70% -70% -70% -69%
48 46 62 56 64
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
87 69 79 -10 54
0 -3 -1 -0 -8
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
747 813 891 891 688
313 299 335 335 292
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
200 0 0 0 240
11/18/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- Latest net cash 13% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
28% 14% 1% -7% 9%
173 198 199 186 203
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 203 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 224 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-69% -70% -70% -70% -69%
48 46 62 56 64
- The cash cost ratio went from -70% to -69% profit from 56 to 64 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use a -69% cost ratio to predict a 65 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
87 69 79 -10 54
0 -3 -1 -0 -8
- Free cashflow went positive again from -10 to 46 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -8 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 45 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 67 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
747 813 891 891 688
313 299 335 335 292
- Cash declined 891 to 688 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 335 to 292 billion rupiah so net cash was down 556 to 396 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -264 billion rupiah equity payout -4 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 400 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
200 0 0 0 240
- DLTA.jk paid 240 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 240 billion rupiah equity & will pay 268 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 3,075 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.48 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 268 billion rupiah which means a 11 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price 5,683 rupiah.
