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DLTA super sharp with a 7% yield forecast
DLTA Current 4,150 Target 8,053 + 94%
Jun 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-11% -23% 28% 14% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-65% -69% -70% -75% -67%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
119, 43, 87, 66, 79
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
558, 597, 434, 514, 556
Capital paid flat , a 94% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
694, 694, 894, 894, 894
Jun 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-11% -23% 28% 14% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 199 billion rupiah , 14% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 226 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-65% -69% -70% -75% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -67% profit from 46 to 62 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use the average -70% cost ratio to predict a 63 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
119, 43, 87, 66, 79
- Free cashflow went from 66 to 79 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 69 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 67 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
558, 597, 434, 514, 556
- Cash increased 813 to 891 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 299 to 335 billion rupiah so net cash improved 514 to 556 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -232 billion rupiah equity payout -62 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 563 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 94% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
694, 694, 894, 894, 894
- DLTA 13 quarter capital paid was flat at 894 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 1,188 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,323 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.49 X assets with a super 2 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 239 billion rupiah which means a 14 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 94% higher target price 8,053 rupiah .