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DIS, looking sharper as profit quadruples…
Current 147 Target 178 +21%
Sales growth & cashflow 5 quarters
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February 11 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 18%
Costs down profit quadrupled
Cashflow lower on negative working capital
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, a 14% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 18%
- Sales jumped 18% in the fourth quarter to 21,819 million dollars vs our 20,387 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 26,168 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs down profit quadrupled
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -80% profit from 256 to 1,200 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a -89% cost ratio & lower non cash costs to predict a 2,098 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower on negative working capital
- Free cashflow went from 1,546 to -1,196 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -987 million dollars investment Cashflow because of negative working capital (otherwise would have been 3,469 million dollars).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 464 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -987 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,932 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash declined 16,003 to 14,488 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 93,011 to 94,310 million dollars so net cash worsened -77,008 to -79,822 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,147 million dollars equity payout -4,343 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -90,170 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 14% higher target price
- DIS capital paid from the last 100 quarters improved 68,858 to 70,472 million dollars in the third quarter with a -91 million dollars liabilities payment & 33 million dollars new equity & will be 92,838 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 268,000 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.31 X assets with a 29 years payback & a 0.8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,490 million dollars which means an 41 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price of 178 rupiah.