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Other stocks here

DIS less dull as cashflow turns positive again

DIS Current 96 Target 131 + 36%

Jul 5, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -12%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 9% 9% 18% -12%
  • Sales declined seasonally -12% in the first quarter to 19,249 million dollars -2% below our 19,637 million dollars forecast.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth per quarter.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 22,525 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-93% -93% -99% -80% -82%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -82% profit declined from 1,200 to 597 million dollars in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -88% now.
  • We use the latest -82% cost ratio to predict a 1,188 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
798, 708, 1,646, -1,196, 728
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -1,196 to 728 million dollars in the first quarter with -1,037 million dollars investment spend.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 472 million dollars now.
  • We assume lower -1,012 million dollars investment spend which with higher sales gives 3,049 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-94,574 -95,029 -94,639 -94,557 -94,522
  • Cash declined 14,444 to 13,272 million dollars in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 109,001 to 107,794 million dollars so net cash improved -94,557 to -94,522 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -449 million dollars equity payout -11,485 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -83,037 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised improved , a 36% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-10,121, -9,240, -8,359, -8,271, -6,987
  • DIS 14 quarter capital raised improved -8,271 to -6,987 million dollars in the first quarter with + 1,369 million dollars liabilities (payment) -85 million dollars equity (raised) & will be 4,947 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 175,117 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at only 0.90 X assets with a 16 years other assets payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 11,934 million dollars which means a 15 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 36% higher target price 131 dollars.
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