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DILD, a 29% higher target price
Current 166 Target 213 +29%
December 13th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 25%
Costs above 100% , but predicted to fall giving a positive profit
Cashflow a small negative from working capital
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 29% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 25%
- Sales jumped 25% in the third quarter to 709 billion rupiah vs our 596 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average up to positive 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 835 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs above 100% , but predicted to fall giving a positive profit
- The cash cost ratio was still above 100% at -106% in the third quarter giving a -72 billion rupiah net profit.
- But the average Cashflow cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use a lower -90% cost ratio to predict a 57 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow a small negative from working capital
- Free cashflow was -4 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & despite positive 18 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 103 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an 85 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 1,542 to 1,712 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 10,015 to 10,100 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -8,473 to -8,388 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -20 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -8,092 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 29% higher target price
- DILD capital from the last 19 quarters worsened to -1,475 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 154 billion rupiah new liabilities but will improve to -1,159 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,721 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 45 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 316 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation.
- A 7 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 213 rupiah.