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DILD, a 29% higher target price
Current 166 Target 213 +29%

December 13th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales jumped 25%
  • Sales jumped 25% in the third quarter to 709 billion rupiah vs our 596 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average up to positive 11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 835 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs above 100% , but predicted to fall giving a positive profit
  • The cash cost ratio was still above 100% at -106% in the third quarter giving a -72 billion rupiah net profit.
  • But the average Cashflow cost ratio is at -81% now.
  • We use a lower -90% cost ratio to predict a 57 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow a small negative from working capital
  • Free cashflow was -4 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & despite positive 18 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 103 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an 85 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, lower leverage
  • Cash increased from 1,542 to 1,712 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 10,015 to 10,100 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -8,473 to -8,388 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -20 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -8,092 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 29% higher target price
  • DILD capital from the last 19 quarters worsened to -1,475 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 154 billion rupiah new liabilities but will improve to -1,159 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,721 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 45 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 316 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation.
  • A 7 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 213 rupiah.
Data file & model
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA