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DILD still a bit dull with slow sales
DILD Current 148 Target 167 + 13%
May 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -30%
Last 5 quarters
-33% 3% 25% 13% -30%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -101% -106% -100% -113%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
210, 155, 16, 425, -233
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8,368 -8,473 -8,388 -8,676 -9,204
Capital raised improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,483 -1,321 -1,475 -1,382 -1,322
May 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -30%
Last 5 quarters
-33% 3% 25% 13% -30%
- Sales declined -30% in the first quarter to 563 billion rupiah -26% below our 759 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 744 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-95% -101% -106% -100% -113%
- The cash cost ratio went from -100% to -113% profit from -30 to -100 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -105% now.
- We use a lower -94% cost ratio to predict a 15 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
210, 155, 16, 425, -233
- Free cashflow went from 425 to -233 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 4 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 91 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 42 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8,368 -8,473 -8,388 -8,676 -9,204
- Cash declined 1,754 to 1,450 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,430 to 10,654 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -8,676 to -9,204 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -157 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,047 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 13% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,483 -1,321 -1,475 -1,382 -1,322
- DILD 21 quarters capital raised improved -1,382 to -1,322 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -60 billion rupiah liabilities -10 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be -9,047 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,534 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a 96 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 157 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 13% higher target price 167 rupiah.