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DILD negative cashflow

DILD.jk Current 170 Target 236 + 39%

12/14/2022
1 minute read

Last 12 months sales growth + 36%
Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 11% of market cap
Latest net cash -544% of market cap

Sales grew 142%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
25% 13% -30% -29% 142%
709 ; 801 ; 563 ; 398 ; 963
  • Sales grew 142% in the third quarter to 963 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 6% now.
  • This brings the average to 24% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 969 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-6% -0% -13% -23% 15%
-72 ; -30 ; -100 ; -118 ; 118
  • The cash margin went from -23% to 15% profit from -118 to 118 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -5% now.
  • We use a 6% cash margin to predict a 33 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-2 ; 420 ; -237 ; 159 ; -29
18 ; 5 ; 4 ; -194 ; 6
  • Free cashflow went from -35 to -24 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 33 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -6 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 56 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,712 ; 1,754 ; 1,450 ; 1,358 ; 1,358
10,100 ; 10,430 ; 10,654 ; 10,763 ; 10,941
  • Cash increased 1,358 to 1,358 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 10,763 to 10,941 billion rupiah so net cash was down -9,405 to -9,583 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -223 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -9,360 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-154 ; 93 ; 60 ; 55 ; -24
0 ; 1 ; 10 ; 3 ; 0
  • DILD.jk (raised) -24 billion rupiah in the third quarter -24 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 223 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,762 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 69 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 223 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 236 rupiah.
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