DGNS a sales slump
DGNS Current 294 Target 132 -55%
25 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-8% 1% -37% 13% -33%
81 82 51 58 39
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-68% -76% -93% -80% -87%
24 18 0 8 2
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-14 1 61 -1 14
-3 -12 -50 12 -43
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
53 37 45 54 32
34 45 40 40 23
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-74 -69 -65 -64 -70
-5 -1 4 1 -7
0 6 0 0 0
25 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- DGNS last 12 months sales slumped - 52%
- DGNS last 12 months cash flow negative -5% of market cap
- DGNS last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- DGNS latest net cash + 2% of market cap
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-8% 1% -37% 13% -33%
81 82 51 58 39
- Sales declined -33% in the second quarter to 39 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 68% now.
- This brings the average to -14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 39 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-68% -76% -93% -80% -87%
24 18 0 8 2
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -87% profit from 8 to 2 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -80% cost ratio to predict a 4 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-14 1 61 -1 14
-3 -12 -50 12 -43
- Free cashflow went from 11 to -29 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -43 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 1 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
53 37 45 54 32
34 45 40 40 23
- Cash declined 54 to 32 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 40 to 23 billion rupiah so net cash was down 14 to 9 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 14 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-74 -69 -65 -64 -70
-5 -1 4 1 -7
0 6 0 0 0
- DGNS cumulative capital worsened -64 to -70 billion rupiah with -7 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 68% billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 368 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 43 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 5 billion rupiah which means a 78 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -55% lower target price 132 rupiah.
