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Picture

DGNS cashflow negative

DGNS.jk Current 250 Target 168 -33%

12/16/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -43%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 1% of market cap

Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -37% 13% -33% 20%
82 ; 51 ; 58 ; 39 ; 47
  • Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 47 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 45% now.
  • This brings the average to -9% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 48 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
24% 7% 20% 13% 12%
18 ; 0 ; 8 ; 2 ; 2
  • The cash margin went from 13% to 12% profit was flat at 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 13% now.
  • We use a 12% cash margin to predict a 2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1 ; 61 ; -1 ; 14 ; -28
-12 ; -50 ; 12 ; -43 ; 25
  • Free cashflow went from -29 to -3 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 25 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 3 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
37 ; 45 ; 54 ; 32 ; 28
45 ; 40 ; 40 ; 23 ; 25
  • Cash declined 32 to 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 23 to 25 billion rupiah so net cash was down 9 to 3 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -5 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 17 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1 ; 4 ; 1 ; -7 ; 0
6 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • DGNS.jk paid 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 5 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 313 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.28 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 14 billion rupiah which means a 22 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 168 rupiah.
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