DGNS cashflow negative
DGNS.jk Current 250 Target 168 -33%
12/16/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -37% 13% -33% 20%
82 ; 51 ; 58 ; 39 ; 47
Margin down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
24% 7% 20% 13% 12%
18 ; 0 ; 8 ; 2 ; 2
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1 ; 61 ; -1 ; 14 ; -28
-12 ; -50 ; 12 ; -43 ; 25
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
37 ; 45 ; 54 ; 32 ; 28
45 ; 40 ; 40 ; 23 ; 25
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1 ; 4 ; 1 ; -7 ; 0
6 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
12/16/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -43%
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash 1% of market cap
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -37% 13% -33% 20%
82 ; 51 ; 58 ; 39 ; 47
- Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 47 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 45% now.
- This brings the average to -9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 48 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
24% 7% 20% 13% 12%
18 ; 0 ; 8 ; 2 ; 2
- The cash margin went from 13% to 12% profit was flat at 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 13% now.
- We use a 12% cash margin to predict a 2 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1 ; 61 ; -1 ; 14 ; -28
-12 ; -50 ; 12 ; -43 ; 25
- Free cashflow went from -29 to -3 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 25 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 3 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
37 ; 45 ; 54 ; 32 ; 28
45 ; 40 ; 40 ; 23 ; 25
- Cash declined 32 to 28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 23 to 25 billion rupiah so net cash was down 9 to 3 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -5 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 17 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1 ; 4 ; 1 ; -7 ; 0
6 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
- DGNS.jk paid 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 5 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 313 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.28 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 14 billion rupiah which means a 22 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 168 rupiah.