DCII still expensive
DCII Current 36,825 Target 26,268 -29%
11/8/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 19%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
14% 14% -19% 13% 19%
232 264 215 243 289
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-56% -51% -50% -50% -47%
62 89 64 79 111
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
144 56 190 49 153
-138 -75 -80 -45 -118
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
92 51 140 125 140
1,811 1,777 1,740 1,709 497
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,384 -1,307 -1,293 -1,273 -1,244
16 77 14 21 28
0 0 0 0 0
11/8/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 25%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -0% of market cap
Sales grew 19%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
14% 14% -19% 13% 19%
232 264 215 243 289
- Sales grew 19% in the third quarter to 289 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 11% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 369 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-56% -51% -50% -50% -47%
62 89 64 79 111
- The cash cost ratio went from -50% to -47% profit from 79 to 111 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -50% now.
- We use a -47% cost ratio to predict a 153 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
144 56 190 49 153
-138 -75 -80 -45 -118
- Free cashflow went from 4 to 35 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -118 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 32 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -81 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 104 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
92 51 140 125 140
1,811 1,777 1,740 1,709 497
- Cash increased 125 to 140 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,709 to 497 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,584 to -357 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -284 billion rupiah equity payout -92 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -224 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,384 -1,307 -1,293 -1,273 -1,244
16 77 14 21 28
0 0 0 0 0
- DCII cumulative capital improved -1,273 to -1,244 billion rupiah with + 28 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -868 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 87,785 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 26 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 417 billion rupiah which means a 210 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -29% lower target price 26,268 rupiah.
