DCII very expensive
DCII Current 36,000 Target 27,626 -23%
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
203, 232, 264, 215, 243
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-53% -56% -51% -50% -50%
Cashflow last 12 months + 0.2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-131 -1 36 104 5
Net cash change last 12 months + 0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,639 -1,719 -1,726 -1,600 -1,584
Capital last 12 months + 0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,400 -1,384 -1,307 -1,293 -1,273
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
203, 232, 264, 215, 243
- Sales grew 13% in the second quarter to 243 billion rupiah 3% above our 237 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 307 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-53% -56% -51% -50% -50%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -50% profit increased from 64 to 79 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -52% now.
- We use the latest -50% cost ratio to predict a 111 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow last 12 months + 0.2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-131 -1 36 104 5
- Free cashflow went from 104 to 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -45 billion rupiah investment cashflow & negative working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 36 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -45 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 110 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash change last 12 months + 0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,639 -1,719 -1,726 -1,600 -1,584
- Cash declined 140 to 125 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,740 to 1,709 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,600 to -1,584 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -41 billion rupiah equity payout -317 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,222 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital last 12 months + 0.1% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,400 -1,384 -1,307 -1,293 -1,273
- DCII 22 quarter cumulative capital improved -1,293 to -1,273 billion rupiah in the second quarter. with + 21 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be -935 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 85,818 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 28 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 439 billion rupiah which means a 195 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -23% lower target price 27,626 rupiah.
