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DCII a bit dull at over 400X cashflow
DCII Current 39,000 Target 19,211 -51%
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-16% 18% 14% 14% -19%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-53% -53% -56% -51% -50%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-64, -131, -1, 37, 104
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,538 -1,639 -1,719 -1,726 -1,600
Capital raised improved , a -51% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,299 -1,400 -1,384 -1,307 -1,293
May 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-16% 18% 14% 14% -19%
- Sales declined -19% in the first quarter to 215 billion rupiah -19% below our 265 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 283 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-53% -53% -56% -51% -50%
- The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -50% profit from 89 to 64 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -53% now.
- We use the latest -50% cost ratio to predict a 98 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-64, -131, -1, 37, 104
- Free cashflow went from 37 to 104 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -80 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -75 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 66 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,538 -1,639 -1,719 -1,726 -1,600
- Cash increased 51 to 140 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,777 to 1,740 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,726 to -1,600 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -229 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,371 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -51% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,299 -1,400 -1,384 -1,307 -1,293
- DCII 21 quarter capital raised improved -1,307 to -1,293 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -14 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -1,064 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 92,970 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 30 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 229 billion rupiah which means an 406 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -51% lower target price 19,211 rupiah.