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Picture
CVX Cashflow less positive

Current 188 Target 234 + 25%

1/27/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 19%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 7% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -22% of market cap

Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
8% 14% 25% -3% -14%
45,861 ; 52,314 ; 65,372 ; 63,508 ; 54,523 million dollars
  • Sales declined -14% in the fourth quarter to 54,523 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -6% now.
  • This brings the average to 6% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 57,276 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
11% 12% 18% 18% 12%
5,082 ; 6,277 ; 11,715 ; 11,238 ; 6,400 million dollars
  • The net profit margin went from 18% to 12% profit from 11,238 to 6,400 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 15% now.
  • We use a 16% net profit margin to predict a 9,130 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
9,458 ; 8,055 ; 13,782 ; 15,267 ; 12,500 million dollars
-1,389 ; -665 ; -4,964 ; -2,767 ; -3,700 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 12,500 to 8,800 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -3,700 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 9,377 million dollars now.
  • We assume -3,024 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 8,707 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
5,640 ; 11,671 ; 12,029 ; 15,164 ; 17,678 million dollars
99,595 ; 101,948 ; 103,374 ; 100,108 ; 98,427 million dollars
  • Cash increased 15,164 to 17,678 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 100,108 to 98,427 million dollars so net cash was up -84,944 to -80,749 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -21,073 million dollars equity payout -13,755 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -66,994 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
6,006 ; 2,006 ; 3,683 ; 2,585 ; 300 million dollars
2,284 ; -640 ; 4,455 ; 6,440 ; 6100 million dollars
  • CVX paid 6,400 million dollars in the fourth quarter 300 million dollars liabilities 6100 million dollars equity, will pay 34,827 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 363,118 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.41 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 34,827 million dollars which means a 10 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 25% higher target price 234 dollars.
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