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CVX, looking very SHARP & cheap at 8 X Cashflow
​Current 136 Target 184 +36%

WATCH THE VIDEO
February 6 2022
1 minute read
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Sales grew 8%
  • Sales grew 8% in the fourth quarter to 48,129 million dollars & are up an amazing 91% from a year ago!
  • This brings the quarterly average to 18% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 135,561 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Costs up profit down on higher non cash costs
  • The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -81% profit from 6,100 to 5,100 million dollars in the fourth quarter on higher non cash costs.
  • The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
  • We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 8,141 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow higher
  • Free cashflow went from 6,700 to 6,900 million dollars in the fourth quarter despite higher -2,600 million dollars investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5,325 million dollars now.
  • We assume the same -2,600 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 9,266 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
​
Balance sheet higher leverage
  • Cash declined 5,998 to 5,640 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 98,086 to 100,468 million dollars so net cash worsened -92,088 to -94,828 million dollars
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -13,909 million dollars equity payout -18,409 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -76,419 million dollars in 12 months time.
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Valuation, cheap, a 36% higher target price
  • CVX capital paid from the last 28 quarters jumped 38,200 to 46,500 million dollars in the third quarter​ with -6,000 million dollars liabilities, -2,300 million dollars equity payments & will be 78,819 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 261,900 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s cheap at 1.1 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 5% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 32,319 million dollars which means an 8 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 36% higher target price of 184 dollars.
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