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CVX sharp with a 4% yield forecast
CVX Current 141 Target 197 + 40%
Jul 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
27% 17% 19% 8% 13%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -81% -79% -81% -82%
Cashflow slightly lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2,600, 5,400, 7,300, 8,100, 7,390
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-102,681 -102,097 -92,088 -94,828 -90,277
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
24,400, 29,400, 38,200, 46,500, 47,866
Jul 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
27% 17% 19% 8% 13%
- Sales grew 13% in the first quarter to 54,373 million dollars 8% above our 50,535 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 57,578 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -81% -79% -81% -82%
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -82% profit from 5,100 to 6,277 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the latest -82% cost ratio to predict a 7,799 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow slightly lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
2,600, 5,400, 7,300, 8,100, 7,390
- Free cashflow went from 8,100 to 7,390 million dollars in the first quarter with -665 million dollars investment spend.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7,048 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -665 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 9,849 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-102,681 -102,097 -92,088 -94,828 -90,277
- Cash increased 5,640 to 11,671 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 100,468 to 101,948 million dollars so net cash improved -94,828 to -90,277 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -10,892 million dollars equity payout -26,154 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -62,538 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
24,400, 29,400, 38,200, 46,500, 47,866
- CVX 13 quarter capital paid improved 46,500 to 47,866 million dollars in the first quarter with + 2,001 million dollars liabilities -635 million dollars equity & will be 83,546 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 276,606 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.1 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 38,631 million dollars which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 197 dollars.
