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CTRA looking sharper as cashflow rises above 1 trillion rupiah
CTRA Current 1,000 Target 1,719 + 72%
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -27%
Last 5 quarters
-52% 17% 21% 17% -27%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -82% -74% -71% -75%
Cashflow above 1 trillion rupiah
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
632, 939, 372, 605, 1,120
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,077 -15,889 -14,945 -14,112 -13,572
Capital raised improved , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 72% higher target price
-5,388 -5,197 -4,973 -4,985 -4,107
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -27%
Last 5 quarters
-52% 17% 21% 17% -27%
- Sales declined seasonally -27% in the first quarter to 2,234 billion rupiah -3% below our 2,311 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,720 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-78% -82% -74% -71% -75%
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -75% profit from 819 to 473 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 588 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow above 1 trillion rupiah
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
632, 939, 372, 605, 1,120
- Free cashflow went from 605 to 1,120 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -215 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 759 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -215 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 457 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-16,077 -15,889 -14,945 -14,112 -13,572
- Cash increased 7,162 to 7,404 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 21,274 to 20,976 billion rupiah so net cash improved -14,112 to -13,572 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,992 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -11,580 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah , a 72% higher target price
-5,388 -5,197 -4,973 -4,985 -4,107
- CTRA 29 quarter capital raised improved -4,985 to -4,107 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -872 billion rupiah liabilities -6 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be -2,116 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 18,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,992 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 1,719 rupiah.