CTRA.jk Cashflow (less) positive
Current 945 Target 1,339 + 42%
12/30/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
21% 17% -27% 9% 5%
2,628 ; 3,081 ; 2,234 ; 2,431 ; 2,562 billion rupiah
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
26% 29% 25% 29% 26%
618 ; 819 ; 473 ; 619 ; 583 billion rupiah
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
503 ; 1,150 ; 1,335 ; 703 ; 651 billion rupiah
-131 ; -545 ; -215 ; -127 ; -235 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
6,530 ; 7,162 ; 7,404 ; 7,973 ; 8,395 billion rupiah
21,475 ; 21,274 ; 20,976 ; 20,517 ; 20,620 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
50 ; -30 ; 872 ; -34 ; -270 billion rupiah
174 ; 17 ; 6 ; 47 ; 269 billion rupiah
Current 945 Target 1,339 + 42%
12/30/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -3%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 16% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -70% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
21% 17% -27% 9% 5%
2,628 ; 3,081 ; 2,234 ; 2,431 ; 2,562 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 5% in the third quarter to 2,562 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -10% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,862 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
26% 29% 25% 29% 26%
618 ; 819 ; 473 ; 619 ; 583 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 29% to 26% profit from 619 to 583 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 27% now.
- We use a 27% cash margin to predict a 695 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
503 ; 1,150 ; 1,335 ; 703 ; 651 billion rupiah
-131 ; -545 ; -215 ; -127 ; -235 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 576 to 416 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -235 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 679 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -235 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 517 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
6,530 ; 7,162 ; 7,404 ; 7,973 ; 8,395 billion rupiah
21,475 ; 21,274 ; 20,976 ; 20,517 ; 20,620 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 7,973 to 8,395 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 20,517 to 20,620 billion rupiah so net cash was up -12,544 to -12,225 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,068 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,157 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
50 ; -30 ; 872 ; -34 ; -270 billion rupiah
174 ; 17 ; 6 ; 47 ; 269 billion rupiah
- CTRA.jk (raised) -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter -270 billion rupiah liabilities 269 billion rupiah equity, will pay 2,068 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 17,516 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.42 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,068 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 42% higher target price 1,339 rupiah.