CTRA at 7X cashflow
CTRA Current 1,000 Target 1,718 + 72%
16 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
17% 21% 17% -27% 9%
2,170 2,628 3,081 2,234 2,431
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -74% -71% -75% -71%
321 618 819 473 619
Cashflow lower but strong
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,142 503 1,150 1,335 703
-204 -131 -545 -215 -127
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6,385 6,530 7,162 7,404 7,973
22,274 21,475 21,274 20,976 20,517
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,197 -4,973 -4,985 -4,107 -4,094
163 50 -30 872 -34
29 174 17 6 47
16 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- Latest net cash -68% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
17% 21% 17% -27% 9%
2,170 2,628 3,081 2,234 2,431
- Sales grew 9% in the second quarter to 2,431 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -12% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,019 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -74% -71% -75% -71%
321 618 819 473 619
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -71% profit from 473 to 619 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use a -72% cost ratio to predict a 765 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower but strong
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,142 503 1,150 1,335 703
-204 -131 -545 -215 -127
- Free cashflow went from 1,120 to 576 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -127 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 668 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -171 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 663 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
6,385 6,530 7,162 7,404 7,973
22,274 21,475 21,274 20,976 20,517
- Cash increased 7,404 to 7,973 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 20,976 to 20,517 billion rupiah so net cash was up -13,572 to -12,544 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,653 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,891 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,197 -4,973 -4,985 -4,107 -4,094
163 50 -30 872 -34
29 174 17 6 47
- CTRA cumulative capital improved -4,107 to -4,094 billion rupiah with -34 & + 47 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,440 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 18,536 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,653 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 1,718 rupiah.
