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Picture
CSRA.jk Cashflow more positive

Current 570 Target 984 + 73%

12/30/2022
1 minute read

Last 12 months sales growth -8%
Last 12 months cash flow + 22% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 8% of market cap
Latest cash minus liabilities -47% of market cap

Sales declined -9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
24% -8% 5% 5% -9%
264 ; 243 ; 255 ; 267 ; 244 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -9% in the third quarter to 244 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 3% now.
  • This brings the average to -2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 269 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
42% 39% 47% 37% 38%
95 ; 81 ; 103 ; 75 ; 70 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 37% to 38% profit from 75 to 70 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 40% now.
  • We use a 40% cash margin to predict a 87 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
122 ; 95 ; 129 ; 71 ; 92 billion rupiah
-76 ; 26 ; -38 ; -62 ; -62 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 9 to 31 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -62 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 63 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -54 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 50 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
175 ; 365 ; 299 ; 275 ; 281 billion rupiah
876 ; 972 ; 887 ; 846 ; 835 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 275 to 281 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 846 to 835 billion rupiah so net cash was up -571 to -554 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -33 billion rupiah equity payout -155 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -386 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
17 ; -121 ; 156 ; 12 ; 23 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 20 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • CSRA.jk paid 24 billion rupiah in the third quarter 23 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 188 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 1,169 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 3% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 202 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 73% higher target price 984 rupiah.
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