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CSRA looking sharp with cashflow above 100 billion rupiah
CSRA Current 690 Target 1,603 + 132%
9 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters
-18% 13% 21% 24% -8%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -69% -72% -58% -61%
Cashflow tripled
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
34, 40, 17, 45, 121
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-785 -759 -733 -701 -607
Capital raised worsened a 132% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-114 -69 -161 -145 -266
9 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters
-18% 13% 21% 24% -8%
- Sales declined -8% in the fourth quarter to 243 billion rupiah -16% below our 291 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 298 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -69% -72% -58% -61%
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -61% profit from 95 to 81 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use the average -65% cost ratio to predict a 86 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow tripled
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
34, 40, 17, 45, 121
- Free cashflow tripled from 45 to 121 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 26 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 56 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -21 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 83 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-785 -759 -733 -701 -607
- Cash increased 175 to 365 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 876 to 972 billion rupiah so net cash improved -701 to -607 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -93 billion rupiah equity payout -180 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -401 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened a 132% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-114 -69 -161 -145 -266
- CSRA 24 quarters capital raised worsened -145 to -266 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 121 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 8 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,415 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.79 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 299 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 132% higher target price 1,603 rupiah.