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CSRA looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast
CSRA Current 735 Target 1,577 + 115%
24 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
13% 21% 24% -8% 5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-69% -72% -58% -61% -53%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
40, 17, 45, 121, 91
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -733 -701 -607 -588
Capital raised improved , a 115% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-69 -161 -145 -266 -110
24 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
13% 21% 24% -8% 5%
- Sales grew 5% in the first quarter to 255 billion rupiah 1% above our 253 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 298 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-69% -72% -58% -61% -53%
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -53% profit from 81 to 103 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -61% now.
- We use the average -61% cost ratio to predict a 97 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
40, 17, 45, 121, 91
- Free cashflow went from 121 to 91 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -38 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 69 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -38 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 77 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -733 -701 -607 -588
- Cash declined 365 to 299 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 972 to 887 billion rupiah so net cash improved -607 to -588 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -112 billion rupiah equity payout -165 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -406 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 115% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-69 -161 -145 -266 -110
- CSRA 25 quarter capital raised improved -266 to -110 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -156 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 167 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,507 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.81 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 294 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 115% higher target price 1,577 rupiah.