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CPRO, a 51% higher target price
Current 88 Target 133 51%

January 13 2022
1 minute read
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Sales declined -2%

• Sales declined -2% in the third quarter to 2,043 billion rupiah, which is 1% higher than a year ago.
• This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
• We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,209 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs lower profit jumped on non cash gains

• The cash cost ratio was lower -95% to -79%, profit jumped 93 to 2,065 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• The Cashflow cost ratio is at -101% now.
• We use an average -90% costs to predict a 198 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow more negative

• Free cashflow was more negative -42 to -117 billion rupiah in the third quarter on negative working capital & with -48 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5 billion rupiah now.
• We assume the same -48 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 159 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet lower leverage on debt conversion to equity

• Cash increased from 144 to 206 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities declined from 5,666 to 3,840 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -5,522 to -3,634 billion rupiah
• With our forecast cashflow & -77 billion rupiah equity -585 billion rupiah liabilities payments net cash will be -3,049 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

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Valuation a 51% higher target price

• CPRO capital from the last 51 quarters worsened 643 to 484 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 159 billion rupiah new liabilities, but will be 1,269 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 5,242 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.78 X assets with an 11 years payback & a 1% yield.
  
• Our cashflow forecast is 609 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation.​ A 13 X valuation gives a 51% target price of 133 rupiah.

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