CPRO cashflow negative
CPRO Current 58 Target 58 + 0%
11/13/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-2% -1% -2% 4% 2%
2,043 2,028 1,987 2,072 2,117
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-85% -93% -94% -95% -94%
2,066 94 104 87 95
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
31 141 123 89 -41
-48 -82 -16 16 -103
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
206 98 155 105 151
3,840 3,587 3,537 3,642 3,589
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity
687 932 984 1,085 952
-158 245 52 102 -133
0 0 0 0 0
11/13/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 4%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- Latest net cash -100% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-2% -1% -2% 4% 2%
2,043 2,028 1,987 2,072 2,117
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 2,117 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,180 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-85% -93% -94% -95% -94%
2,066 94 104 87 95
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -94% profit from 87 to 95 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -94% cost ratio to predict a 110 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
31 141 123 89 -41
-48 -82 -16 16 -103
- Free cashflow went negative from 105 to -144 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -103 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 32 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -46 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 69 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
206 98 155 105 151
3,840 3,587 3,537 3,642 3,589
- Cash increased 105 to 151 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,642 to 3,589 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,537 to -3,438 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -277 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,107 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity
687 932 984 1,085 952
-158 245 52 102 -133
0 0 0 0 0
- CPRO cumulative capital worsened 1,085 to 952 billion rupiah with -133 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 1,229 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,455 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 0.51 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 277 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 0% higher target price 58 rupiah.
