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CPIN less negative cashflow

CPIN Current 5,725 Target 4,810 -16%

11/14/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -12% of market cap
​
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 16% 1% 0% 3%
12,124 14,105 14,295 14,342 14,801
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 14,801 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 13% now.
  • This brings the average to 5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 16,602 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-99% -91% -90% -90% -93%
-158 944 1,191 1,227 770
  • The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -93% profit from 1,227 to 770 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
  • We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a 1,220 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-403 310 1,217 -955 65
-907 -756 -624 -434 -584
  • Free cashflow went from -1,389 to -519 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -584 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -440 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -584 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 896 billion rupiah average cash flow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,837 1,803 2,111 1,743 1,580
10,560 10,296 10,047 13,298 13,031
  1. Cash declined 1,743 to 1,580 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  2. Liabilities declined 13,298 to 13,031 billion rupiah so net cash was up -11,555 to -11,451 billion rupiah .
  3. With our forecast cashflow & a -1,429 billion rupiah equity payout -2,156 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,295 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
9,445 9,065 9,265 8,570 8,196
-1,400 -380 200 -2,467 -374
1,837 0 0 1,771 0
  • CPIN cumulative capital worsened 8,570 to 8,196 billion rupiah with -374 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 11,781 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 93,879 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.30 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,585 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 4,810 rupiah.
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