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CPIN less dull with positive cashflow again
CPIN Current 4,880 Target 6,403 + 31%
May 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
17% 5% -7% 16% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-86% -88% -99% -91% -90%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
280, 645, -1,293, -329, 615
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,085 -5,014 -8,723 -8,493 -7,936
Capital paid improved , a 31% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
9,009 9,009 9,445 9,065 9,265
May 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
17% 5% -7% 16% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 14,295 billion rupiah 2% above our 13,964 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 15,918 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-86% -88% -99% -91% -90%
- The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -90% profit from 944 to 1,191 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the latest -90% cost ratio to predict a 1,357 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
280, 645, -1,293, -329, 615
- Free cashflow went positive again from -329 to 615 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -624 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -9,063% billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -590 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,014 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,085 -5,014 -8,723 -8,493 -7,936
- Cash increased 1,803 to 2,111 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,296 to 10,047 billion rupiah so net cash improved -8,493 to -7,936 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -526 billion rupiah equity payout -1,864 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,486 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 31% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
9,009 9,009 9,445 9,065 9,265
- CPIN 29 quarter capital paid improved 9,065 to 9,265 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -200 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 11,655 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 80,022 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.04 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,889 billion rupiah which means a 21 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 31% higher target price 6,403 rupiah.