CPIN very negative cashflow
CPIN Current 5,850 Target 6,063 + 4%
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
5% -7% 16% 1% 0%
13,064 12,124 14,105 14,295 14,342
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -99% -91% -90% -90%
1,378 -158 944 1,191 1,227
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,154 -403 310 1,217 -955
-518 -907 -756 -624 -434
Net cash down a lot
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,490 1,837 1,803 2,111 1,743
8,504 10,560 10,296 10,047 13,298
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
9,009 9,445 9,065 9,265 8,570
0 -1,400 -380 200 -2,467
0 1,837 0 0 1,771
Aug 9, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -12% of market cap
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
5% -7% 16% 1% 0%
13,064 12,124 14,105 14,295 14,342
- Sales grew 0% in the second quarter to 14,342 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 15% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 15,809 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -99% -91% -90% -90%
1,378 -158 944 1,191 1,227
- The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -90% profit from 1,191 to 1,227 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the latest -90% cost ratio to predict a 1,381 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,154 -403 310 1,217 -955
-518 -907 -756 -624 -434
- Free cashflow went from 593 to -1,389 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -434 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -638 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -434 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 1,130 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down a lot
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3,490 1,837 1,803 2,111 1,743
8,504 10,560 10,296 10,047 13,298
- Cash declined 2,111 to 1,743 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,047 to 13,298 billion rupiah so net cash was down -7,936 to -11,555 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,606 billion rupiah equity payout -1,914 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,588 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
9,009 9,445 9,065 9,265 8,570
0 -1,400 -380 200 -2,467
0 1,837 0 0 1,771
- CPIN cumulative capital worsened 9,265 to 8,570 billion rupiah with -2,467 & + 1,771 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 13,089 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 95,928 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.41 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 4,519 billion rupiah which means a 21 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 6,063 rupiah.
