CPIN less negative cashflow
CPIN Current 5,725 Target 4,810 -16%
11/14/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 16% 1% 0% 3%
12,124 14,105 14,295 14,342 14,801
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-99% -91% -90% -90% -93%
-158 944 1,191 1,227 770
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-403 310 1,217 -955 65
-907 -756 -624 -434 -584
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,837 1,803 2,111 1,743 1,580
10,560 10,296 10,047 13,298 13,031
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
9,445 9,065 9,265 8,570 8,196
-1,400 -380 200 -2,467 -374
1,837 0 0 1,771 0
11/14/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -12% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 16% 1% 0% 3%
12,124 14,105 14,295 14,342 14,801
- Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 14,801 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 13% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 16,602 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-99% -91% -90% -90% -93%
-158 944 1,191 1,227 770
- The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -93% profit from 1,227 to 770 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a 1,220 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-403 310 1,217 -955 65
-907 -756 -624 -434 -584
- Free cashflow went from -1,389 to -519 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -584 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -440 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -584 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 896 billion rupiah average cash flow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,837 1,803 2,111 1,743 1,580
10,560 10,296 10,047 13,298 13,031
- Cash declined 1,743 to 1,580 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 13,298 to 13,031 billion rupiah so net cash was up -11,555 to -11,451 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,429 billion rupiah equity payout -2,156 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,295 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
9,445 9,065 9,265 8,570 8,196
-1,400 -380 200 -2,467 -374
1,837 0 0 1,771 0
- CPIN cumulative capital worsened 8,570 to 8,196 billion rupiah with -374 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 11,781 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
- At the current market value of 93,879 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.30 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,585 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 4,810 rupiah.
