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CMRY dull with negative cashflow again & an expensive valuation
CMRY Current 4,020 Target 3,638 -9%
Jul 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
40% 0% 40% 6% 13%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -75% -85% -80% -80%
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
127, 127, 81, -560, -279
Balance sheet net cash lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-245, -591, 2,755, 2,010, 1,320
Capital raised improved a -9% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
200, 400, -3,170, -3,170, -2,768
Jul 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
40% 0% 40% 6% 13%
- Sales grew 13% in the second quarter to 1,663 billion rupiah 8% above our 1,544 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,209 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -75% -85% -80% -80%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -80% profit increased from 270 to 311 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 416 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
127, 127, 81, -560, -279
- Free cashflow went from -560 to -279 billion rupiah in the second quarter with much lower -49 billion rupiah investment spending but negative operating cashflow….
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -158 billion rupiah now.
- We assume recent average -128 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 309 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-245, -591, 2,755, 2,010, 1,320
- Cash declined 3,102 to 2,420 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,092 to 1,100 billion rupiah so net cash was lower 2,010 to 1,320 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -728 billion rupiah equity payout -204 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,623 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved a -9% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
200, 400, -3,170, -3,170, -2,768
- CMRY 10 quarter capital raised improved -3,170 to -2,768 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities + 402 billion rupiah from equity & will be -1,836 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 31,897 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 4.98 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,031 billion rupiah which means a 31 X valuation. A 28 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 3,638 rupiah.
