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CMRY, a bit dull with negative Cashflow
CMRY Current 4,090 Target 3,878 -5%
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
53% 40% 0% 40% 6%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-77% -75% -75% -85% -80%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
90, 127, 127, 81, -560
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-195 -268 -613 2,755 2,010
Capital raised flat a -5% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
0 200 400 -3,170 -3,170
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
53% 40% 0% 40% 6%
- Sales grew 6% in the first quarter to 1,470 billion rupiah 1% above our 1,462 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,849 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-77% -75% -75% -85% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -80% profit from 184 to 270 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 371 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
90, 127, 127, 81, -560
- Free cashflow went from 81 to -560 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a large -839 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -56 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -147 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 243 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-195 -268 -613 2,755 2,010
- Cash declined 3,662 to 3,102 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 907 to 1,092 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 2,755 to 2,010 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -695 billion rupiah equity payout -184 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 2,194 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised flat a -5% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
0 200 400 -3,170 -3,170
- CMRY 9 quarter capital raised was flat at -3,170 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be -2,291 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 32,453 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 4.94 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 879 billion rupiah which means an 37 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 3,878 rupiah.