CMRY expensive
CMRY Current 4,450 Target 3,685 -17%
10/29/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% 40% 6% 13% -2%
996 1,392 1,470 1,663 1,624
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-75% -85% -80% -80% -80%
232 184 270 311 298
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
176 228 279 -230 163
-49 -147 -839 -49 -383
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
34 3,662 3,102 2,420 2,098
625 907 1,092 1,100 798
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
400 -3,170 -3,170 -2,768 -2,664
-0 0 0 0 6
200 -3,570 0 402 98
10/29/22
1 minute read
- CMRY last 12 months sales growth + 63%
- CMRY last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- CMRY last 12 months Capital -9% of market cap
- CMRY latest net cash + 4% of market cap
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% 40% 6% 13% -2%
996 1,392 1,470 1,663 1,624
- Sales declined -2% in the third quarter to 1,624 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,858 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-75% -85% -80% -80% -80%
232 184 270 311 298
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -80% profit declined from 311 to 298 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -80% cost ratio to predict a 344 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
176 228 279 -230 163
-49 -147 -839 -49 -383
- Free cashflow went from -279 to -220 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -383 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -244 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -151 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 203 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
34 3,662 3,102 2,420 2,098
625 907 1,092 1,100 798
- Cash declined 2,420 to 2,098 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,100 to 798 billion rupiah so net cash was down 1,320 to 1,300 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -667 billion rupiah equity payout -145 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 1,445 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
400 -3,170 -3,170 -2,768 -2,664
-0 0 0 0 6
200 -3,570 0 402 98
- CMRY cumulative capital improved -2,768 to -2,664 billion rupiah with + 6 & + 98 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -1,852 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 35,309 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 5.52 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 812 billion rupiah (vs -978 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 43 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 3,685 rupiah.
