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CMPP, a -3% lower target price
Current 525 Target 507 -3%
January 11 2022
1 minute read
Sales plunged -85%
Costs surged 611 points, profit down
Cashflow positive on working capital & zero investment
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, a -3% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales plunged -85%
- Sales plunged -85% in the third quarter to 34 billion rupiah which is also -37% below a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to -41% growth.
- We predict rebound average growth of 144% in this next 12 months to bring sales back to 399 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs surged 611 points, profit down
- The cash cost ratio surged from -173% to -784% profit went from -422 to -480 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use a better -67% cost ratio as sales recover to predict a -115 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive on working capital & zero investment
- Free cashflow went from -6 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -0 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 132 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash increased 16 to 26 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9,624 to 9,864 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -9,609 to -9,838 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -108 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,729 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -3% lower target price
- CMPP capital from the last 37 quarters was unchanged at -1,274 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity payments but will improve to -1,166 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,610 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.29 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 108 billion rupiah which means an 52 X valuation. A generous 50 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price of 507 rupiah.