CMPP sales, cashflow surge
CMPP Current 266 Target 323 + 21%
August 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
Latest net cash -396% of market cap
Sales soared 288%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
230, 34, 139, 224, 868
Costs down profit down on FX losses
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-102% -80% -98% -84% -79%
-422 -480 -686 -502 -555
Cashflow jumped higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6 9 1 42 222
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
16 24 21 63 284
9,624 9,864 10,354 10,691 11,326
Capital paid (raised) improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,245 -1,245 -1,245 -1,245 -1,242
2 2 2 2 5
0 0 0 0 3
August 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
Latest net cash -396% of market cap
Sales soared 288%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
230, 34, 139, 224, 868
- Sales soared 288% in the second quarter to 868 billion rupiah, our forecasts v sales is -68% now.
- This brings the average to 143% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,114 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down on FX losses
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-102% -80% -98% -84% -79%
-422 -480 -686 -502 -555
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -79% profit from -502 to -555 billion rupiah with higher non cash costs in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a -33 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumped higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6 9 1 42 222
- Free cashflow jumped from 42 to 222 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 68 billion rupiah now.
- We assume flat -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives higher 86 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
16 24 21 63 284
9,624 9,864 10,354 10,691 11,326
- Cash increased 63 to 284 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,691 to 11,326 billion rupiah so net cash was down -10,628 to -11,042 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -345 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,495 billion rupiah in 12 months time
Capital paid (raised) improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,245 -1,245 -1,245 -1,245 -1,242
2 2 2 2 5
0 0 0 0 3
- CMPP capital improved -1,245 to -1,242 billion rupiah with + 5 & + 3 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -897 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,842 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.66 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 345 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 21% higher target price 323 rupiah.
