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Picture

CMPP cashflow negative again

CMPP.jk Current 198 Target 213 + 8%

12/5/2022
1 minute read

Last 12 months sales growth + 3,908%
Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
Latest net cash -536% of market cap

Sales grew 57%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-85% 308% 61% 288% 57%
34, 139, 224, 868, 1,363
  • Sales grew another 57% in the third quarter to 1,363 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -51% now.
  • This brings the average to 179% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,906 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin & profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-684% -329% -135% -41% -17%
-480 -686 -502 -555 -423
  • The cash margin went from -41% to -17% profit from -555 to -423 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -131% now.
  • We use a 3% cash margin to predict a -139 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
11 3 44 227 -140
-2 -2 -2 -5 -7
  • Free cashflow went from 222 to -147 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 30 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 49 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
24 21 63 284 132
9,864 10,354 10,691 11,326 11,470
  • Cash declined 284 to 132 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 11,326 to 11,470 billion rupiah so net cash was down -11,042 to -11,338 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -198 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -11,140 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 3 3
0 0 0 0 0
  • CMPP.jk paid 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter 3 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 198 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 2,116 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 198 billion rupiah which means a 11 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 213 rupiah.
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