CMNT Cashflow less negative
CMNT.jk Current 820 Target 566 -31%
12/14/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
8% 19% -9% 5% 7%
2,010 ; 2,397 ; 2,178 ; 2,286 ; 2,448
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
18% 2% 13% 8% 6%
191 ; -124 ; 83 ; -24 ; -53
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-798 ; 255 ; 373 ; 169 ; 166
-251 ; 27 ; -109 ; -1,281 ; -180
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
532 ; 450 ; 808 ; 817 ; 390
14,622 ; 14,587 ; 15,091 ; 14,806 ; 14,480
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-42 ; 174 ; -728 ; 134 ; -149
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -1,079 ; 0
12/14/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 22%
- Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -100% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
8% 19% -9% 5% 7%
2,010 ; 2,397 ; 2,178 ; 2,286 ; 2,448
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 2,448 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -80% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,682 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
18% 2% 13% 8% 6%
191 ; -124 ; 83 ; -24 ; -53
- The cash margin went from 8% to 6% profit from -24 to -53 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 7% now.
- We use a 10% cash margin (from cashflow) to predict a 75 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-798 ; 255 ; 373 ; 169 ; 166
-251 ; 27 ; -109 ; -1,281 ; -180
- Free cashflow went from -1,112 to -14 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -180 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -145 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -109 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 162 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
532 ; 450 ; 808 ; 817 ; 390
14,622 ; 14,587 ; 15,091 ; 14,806 ; 14,480
- Cash declined 817 to 390 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 14,806 to 14,480 billion rupiah so net cash was down -13,989 to -14,090 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -646 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -13,444 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-42 ; 174 ; -728 ; 134 ; -149
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -1,079 ; 0
- CMNT.jk (raised) -149 billion rupiah in the third quarter -149 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 646 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 14,043 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.78 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 646 billion rupiah which means a 22 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -31% lower target price 566 rupiah.