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CMNP, finally paying back capital
Current 1,625 Target 2,105 +30%
January 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined-6%
Costs lower, profit slightly higher
Cashflow turns negative again
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a 30% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales declined-6%
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 692 billion rupiah & were up 44% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 870 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower, profit slightly higher
- The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -71%, profit from 175 to 176 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The avenger Cashflow cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use an average -72% cost ratio to predict a 259 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow turns negative again
- Free cashflow declined from +423 to -175 billion rupiah in the third quarter with negative -334 billion rupiah investment Cashflow from positive in the previous quarter.
- But average quarterly Cashflow is positive at 97 billion rupiah.
- We assume -65 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 220 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 2,554 to 913 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 5,055 to 4,282 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -2,501 to -3,369 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity, -747 billion rupiah liabilities payments net cash will be -2,622 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 30% higher target price
- CMNP capital raised from the last 63 quarters improved from -4.983 to -3,528 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -1,456 billion rupiah liabilities payment & 1 billion rupiah new equity, & will be -2,781 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,825 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 879 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price of 2,105 rupiah.