CMNP at break even
CMNP Current 2,010 Target 1,912 -5%
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -58%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
50% -6% 263% -51% -58%
739 692 2,513 1,223 512
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-72% -70% -90% -81% -42%
175 176 227 206 263
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
202 159 795 327 141
220 -334 -299 -479 -281
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,554 913 1,085 508 816
5,055 4,282 4,857 4,870 5,023
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-4,983 -3,528 -3,205 -2,780 -3,233
1,287 1,456 250 427 -453
-103 -1 73 -2 -1
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 16% of market cap
- Latest net cash -39% of market cap
Sales declined -58%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
50% -6% 263% -51% -58%
739 692 2,513 1,223 512
- Sales declined -58% in the second quarter to 512 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -24% now.
- This brings the average to 37% growth.
- We predict average growth of 11% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 744 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-72% -70% -90% -81% -42%
175 176 227 206 263
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -42% profit from 206 to 263 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
- We use the average -71% cost ratio to predict a 185 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
202 159 795 327 141
220 -334 -299 -479 -281
- Free cashflow went less negative from -152 to -140 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -281 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -220 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -20 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,554 913 1,085 508 816
5,055 4,282 4,857 4,870 5,023
- Cash increased 508 to 816 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,870 to 5,023 billion rupiah so net cash was up -4,362 to -4,207 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 80 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,287 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-4,983 -3,528 -3,205 -2,780 -3,233
1,287 1,456 250 427 -453
-103 -1 73 -2 -1
- CMNP cumulative capital worsened -2,780 to -3,233 billion rupiah with -453 & -1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -3,313 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,924 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.65 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 799 billion rupiah which means an 14 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 1,912 rupiah.
