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Picture

CMNP cashflow still negative

CMNP.jk Current 1,790 Target 1,613 -10%

12/4/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 110%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -49% of market cap

Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 263% -51% -58% 184%
692 2,513 1,223 512 1,453
  • Sales grew 184% in the third quarter to 1,453 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -24% now.
  • This brings the average to 84% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,628 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
30% 10% 19% 58% 21%
176 227 206 263 268
  • The cash margin went from 58% to 21% profit from 263 to 268 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 27% now.
  • We use a 21% cash margin to predict a 306 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
159 795 327 141 97
-334 -299 -479 -281 -514
  • Free cashflow went from -140 to -417 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -514 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -53 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -281 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 49 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
913 1,085 508 816 449
4,282 4,857 4,870 5,023 5,173
  • Cash declined 816 to 449 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 5,023 to 5,173 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,207 to -4,724 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -195 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,529 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,456 250 427 -453 -50
-1 73 -2 -1 0
  • CMNP.jk (raised) -50 billion rupiah in the third quarter -50 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 195 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 9,729 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 87 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 195 billion rupiah which means a 50 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 1,613 rupiah.
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