CMNP cashflow still negative
CMNP.jk Current 1,790 Target 1,613 -10%
12/4/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 263% -51% -58% 184%
692 2,513 1,223 512 1,453
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
30% 10% 19% 58% 21%
176 227 206 263 268
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
159 795 327 141 97
-334 -299 -479 -281 -514
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
913 1,085 508 816 449
4,282 4,857 4,870 5,023 5,173
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,456 250 427 -453 -50
-1 73 -2 -1 0
12/4/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 110%
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -49% of market cap
Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-6% 263% -51% -58% 184%
692 2,513 1,223 512 1,453
- Sales grew 184% in the third quarter to 1,453 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -24% now.
- This brings the average to 84% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,628 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
30% 10% 19% 58% 21%
176 227 206 263 268
- The cash margin went from 58% to 21% profit from 263 to 268 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 27% now.
- We use a 21% cash margin to predict a 306 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
159 795 327 141 97
-334 -299 -479 -281 -514
- Free cashflow went from -140 to -417 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -514 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -53 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -281 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 49 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
913 1,085 508 816 449
4,282 4,857 4,870 5,023 5,173
- Cash declined 816 to 449 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,023 to 5,173 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,207 to -4,724 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -195 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,529 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,456 250 427 -453 -50
-1 73 -2 -1 0
- CMNP.jk (raised) -50 billion rupiah in the third quarter -50 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 195 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 9,729 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 87 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 195 billion rupiah which means a 50 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price 1,613 rupiah.