CMG cashflow positive again
Current 1,723 Target 1,629 -5%
Feb 9, 2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
0% 3% 10% 0% -2%
1,961 ; 2,021 ; 2,213 ; 2,220 ; 2,181 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
11% 12% 16% 16% 13%
133 ; 158 ; 260 ; 257 ; 224 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
438 ; 283 ; 287 ; 352 ; 401 million dollars
-159 ; -133 ; -116 ; -397 ; -184 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
815 ; 616 ; 521 ; 367 ; 384 million dollars
4,356 ; 4,333 ; 4,391 ; 4,490 ; 4,560 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
182 ; 350 ; 264 ; 109 ; 206 million dollars
Feb 9, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 11%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -9% of market cap
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
0% 3% 10% 0% -2%
1,961 ; 2,021 ; 2,213 ; 2,220 ; 2,181 million dollars
- Sales declined -2% in the fourth quarter to 2,181 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,403 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
11% 12% 16% 16% 13%
133 ; 158 ; 260 ; 257 ; 224 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 16% to 13% net profit from 257 to 224 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 14% now.
- We use a 14% cash profit margin to predict a 259 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
438 ; 283 ; 287 ; 352 ; 401 million dollars
-159 ; -133 ; -116 ; -397 ; -184 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from -45 to 217 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -184 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 123 million dollars now.
- We assume -208 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 133 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
815 ; 616 ; 521 ; 367 ; 384 million dollars
4,356 ; 4,333 ; 4,391 ; 4,490 ; 4,560 million dollars
- Cash increased 367 to 384 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,490 to 4,560 million dollars so net cash was down -4,123 to -4,176 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,015 million dollars equity payout + 484 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -4,660 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
182 ; 350 ; 264 ; 109 ; 206 million dollars
- CMG paid 206 million dollars in the fourth quarter 0 million dollars liabilities 206 million dollars equity, will pay 531 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 47,760 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 6.44 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 2% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 531 million dollars which means a 90 X valuation. A 85 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 1,629 dollars.
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