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Picture
CLEO.jk Cashflow negative again

Current 490 Target 336 -31%

12/28/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 31%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -2% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -9% of market cap

Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-6% 10% 2% 13% 3%
274 ; 301 ; 308 ; 347 ; 359 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 359 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 2% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 428 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
24% 22% 22% 24% 21%
45 ; 44 ; 46 ; 57 ; 48 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 24% to 21% profit from 57 to 48 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 22% now.
  • We use a 22% cash margin to predict a 70 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
20 ; 109 ; 134 ; 11 ; 49 billion rupiah
-10 ; -95 ; -81 ; -101 ; -138 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -91 to -90 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -138 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -28 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -88 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
15 ; 5 ; 23 ; 17 ; 3 billion rupiah
368 ; 347 ; 386 ; 474 ; 505 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 17 to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 474 to 505 billion rupiah so net cash was down -457 to -502 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -9 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -493 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
68 ; -9 ; 33 ; -99 ; -75 billion rupiah
16 ; 30 ; 0 ; 12 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • CLEO.jk (raised) -75 billion rupiah in the third quarter -75 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 5,860 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.09 X assets with a 212 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9 billion rupiah which means a 655 X valuation. A 450 X valuation gives a -31% lower target price 336 rupiah.
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