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CLEO, a bit dull a with an expensive valuation
CLEO Current 428 Target 371 -13%
16 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 23% -6% 10% 2%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-73% -75% -76% -78% -78%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 75, 8, 11, 52
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-374 -345 -353 -342 -363
Capital raised improved , a -13% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-413 -372 -288 -267 -234
16 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 23% -6% 10% 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the first quarter to 308 billion rupiah 8% above our 286 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 369 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-73% -75% -76% -78% -78%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -78% profit went from 44 to 46 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use a lower -76% cost ratio to predict a 67 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 75, 8, 11, 52
- Free cashflow went from 11 to 52 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -81 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 36 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -48 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 39 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-374 -345 -353 -342 -363
- Cash increased 5 to 23 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 347 to 386 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -342 to -363 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -75 billion rupiah equity payout -71 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -292 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -13% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-413 -372 -288 -267 -234
- CLEO 25 quarter capital raised improved -267 to -234 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -33 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -160 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,119 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.3 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 139 billion rupiah which means an 37 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -13% lower target price 371 rupiah.