CL Sales grew 4%
Current 72 Target 84 + 18%
1/29/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-0% -0% 2% -1% 4%
4,403 ; 4,399 ; 4,484 ; 4,455 ; 4,629 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
4% 14% 14% 15% 1%
188 ; 603 ; 639 ; 682 ; 43 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,106 ; 386 ; 528 ; 969 ; 673 million dollars
-130 ; -141 ; -341 ; -946 ; -173 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
832 ; 877 ; 858 ; 938 ; 775 million dollars
14,069 ; 14,995 ; 15,153 ; 15,235 ; 14,925 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
381 ; -418 ; -584 ; -453 ; -192 million dollars
725 ; 622 ; 765 ; 354 ; 858 million dollars
Current 72 Target 84 + 18%
1/29/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 5%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -24% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-0% -0% 2% -1% 4%
4,403 ; 4,399 ; 4,484 ; 4,455 ; 4,629 million dollars
- Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 4,629 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1,138% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,815 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters net margin, profit
4% 14% 14% 15% 1%
188 ; 603 ; 639 ; 682 ; 43 million dollars
- The net profit margin went from 15% to 1% profit from 682 to 43 million dollars in the fourth quarter because of large non cash costs.
- The average margin is at 11% now.
- We use a 11% net profit margin to predict a 552 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,106 ; 386 ; 528 ; 969 ; 673 million dollars
-130 ; -141 ; -341 ; -946 ; -173 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 23 to 500 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -173 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 239 million dollars now.
- We assume -274 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 587 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
832 ; 877 ; 858 ; 938 ; 775 million dollars
14,069 ; 14,995 ; 15,153 ; 15,235 ; 14,925 million dollars
- Cash declined 938 to 775 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 15,235 to 14,925 million dollars so net cash minus liabilities was up -14,297 to -14,150 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,130 million dollars equity payout -219 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -13,932 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
381 ; -418 ; -584 ; -453 ; -192 million dollars
725 ; 622 ; 765 ; 354 ; 858 million dollars
- CL paid 666 million dollars in the fourth quarter -192 million dollars liabilities 858 million dollars equity, will pay 2,349 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 59,793 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.85 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,349 million dollars which means a 25 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 18% higher target price 84 dollars.