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CENT looking dull with more negative cashflow

CENT Current 206 Target 148 -28%

5 May 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 88%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 5% -0% 0% 88%
  • Sales grew 88% in the first quarter to 568 billion rupiah 94% above our 293 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 23% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 614 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-111% -80% -73% -62% -135%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -135% profit from -22 to -478 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
  • We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a -202 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-215, 74, -187, -17, -404
  • Free cashflow went from -17 to -404 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -231 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -133 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -231 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -154 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.

Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,066 -4,983 -5,106 -16,942 -17,737
  • Cash declined 798 to 521 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 17,740 to 18,258 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -16,942 to -17,737 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 615 billion rupiah new liabilities net cash will be -18,352 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital raised worsened a -28% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,143 -4,628 -4,673 -4,458 -4,583
  • CENT 29 quarter capital raised worsened -4,458 to -4,583 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 125 billion rupiah new liabilities & will be -5,198 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 6,424 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 62 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 307 billion rupiah which means an 21 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -28% lower target price 148 rupiah.
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