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CENT looking dull with more negative cashflow
CENT Current 206 Target 148 -28%
5 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 88%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 5% -0% 0% 88%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-111% -80% -73% -62% -135%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-215, 74, -187, -17, -404
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,066 -4,983 -5,106 -16,942 -17,737
Capital raised worsened a -28% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,143 -4,628 -4,673 -4,458 -4,583
5 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 88%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 5% -0% 0% 88%
- Sales grew 88% in the first quarter to 568 billion rupiah 94% above our 293 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 23% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 614 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-111% -80% -73% -62% -135%
- The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -135% profit from -22 to -478 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a -202 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-215, 74, -187, -17, -404
- Free cashflow went from -17 to -404 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -231 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -133 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -231 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -154 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,066 -4,983 -5,106 -16,942 -17,737
- Cash declined 798 to 521 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 17,740 to 18,258 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -16,942 to -17,737 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 615 billion rupiah new liabilities net cash will be -18,352 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened a -28% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,143 -4,628 -4,673 -4,458 -4,583
- CENT 29 quarter capital raised worsened -4,458 to -4,583 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 125 billion rupiah new liabilities & will be -5,198 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,424 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 62 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 307 billion rupiah which means an 21 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -28% lower target price 148 rupiah.