CEKA cashflow positive again
CEKA Current 2,130 Target 2,735 + 28%
October 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% 21% 3% 12% -33%
1,379 1,671 1,721 1,921 1,293
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-96% -96% -94% -95% -103%
54 57 98 83 -40
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
47 -75 -174 -27 125
-21 -12 -13 -15 -9
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
321 234 48 6 62
250 310 333 390 258
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
969 969 969 969 1,028
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 59
October 20, 2022
1 minute read
- CEKA last 12 months sales growth -6%
- CEKA last 12 months cash flow -16% of market cap
- CEKA last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- CEKA latest net cash -15% of market cap
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% 21% 3% 12% -33%
1,379 1,671 1,721 1,921 1,293
- Sales declined -33% in the third quarter to 1,293 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,645 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-96% -96% -94% -95% -103%
54 57 98 83 -40
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -103% profit from 83 to -40 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use a -96% cost ratio to predict a 57 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
47 -75 -174 -27 125
-21 -12 -13 -15 -9
- Free cashflow went from -42 to 116 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -50 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 51 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
321 234 48 6 62
250 310 333 390 258
- Cash increased 6 to 62 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 390 to 258 billion rupiah so net cash was up -384 to -196 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -108 billion rupiah equity -48 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -100 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
969 969 969 969 1,028
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 59
- CEKA cumulative capital improved 969 to 1,028 billion rupiah with 0 & + 59 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,184 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,267 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.71 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 203 billion rupiah (vs -199 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 28% higher target price 2,735 rupiah.
