CEKA sales up again
CEKA Current 2,460 Target 3,306 + 34%
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -20% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
Latest net cash -26% of market cap
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,203 1,379 1,671 1,721 1,921
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -96% -96% -94% -95%
27 54 57 98 83
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12 26 -87 -187 -42
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
296 321 234 48 6
213 250 310 333 390
Capital flat again
Last 5 quarters cumulative, liabilities & equity
968 969 969 969 969
0 0 0 0 0
59 0 0 0 0
Aug 4, 2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months cash flow -20% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
Latest net cash -26% of market cap
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,203 1,379 1,671 1,721 1,921
- Sales grew 12% in the second quarter to 1,921 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,138 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-97% -96% -96% -94% -95%
27 54 57 98 83
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -95% profit from 98 to 83 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use -95% cost ratio to predict a 94 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12 26 -87 -187 -42
- Free cashflow went less negative from -187 to -42 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -72 billion rupiah now.
- We assume flat -15 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 82 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
296 321 234 48 6
213 250 310 333 390
- Cash declined 48 to 6 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 333 to 390 billion rupiah so net cash was down -285 to -384 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -181 billion rupiah equity payout -72 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -237 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat again
Last 5 quarters cumulative, liabilities & equity
968 969 969 969 969
0 0 0 0 0
59 0 0 0 0
- CEKA capital was flat at 969 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 1,222 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,464 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.6 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 12% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 328 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 34% higher target price 3,306 rupiah.
