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CEKA dull again with more negative cashflow
CEKA Current 1,835 Target 2,548 + 39%
Apr 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 9% 15% 21% 3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -96% -96% -94%
The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -94% profit from 57 to 98 billion rupiah in the first quarter
The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 70 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-99, 12, 26, -87, -187
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
73, 83, 71, -76, -285
Capital paid flat, a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
909, 968, 969, 969, 969
Apr 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
-2% 9% 15% 21% 3%
- Sales grew 3% in the first quarter to 1,721 billion rupiah 4% above our 1,654 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,808 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -96% -96% -94%
The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -94% profit from 57 to 98 billion rupiah in the first quarter
The average cost ratio is at -96% now.
We use the average -96% cost ratio to predict a 70 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-99, 12, 26, -87, -187
- Free cashflow went more negative from -87 to -187 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -13 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -59 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -13 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 64 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
73, 83, 71, -76, -285
- Cash declined 234 to 48 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 310 to 333 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -76 to -285 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -140 billion rupiah equity payout -62 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -172 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat, a 39% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
909, 968, 969, 969, 969
- CEKA 25 quarter capital paid was flat at 969 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 1,170 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,092 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.58 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 253 billion rupiah which means an 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 39% higher target price 2,548 rupiah.