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Picture

CARE zero cashflow, expensive

CARE.jk Current 458 Target 265 -42%

12/15/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -31%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -5% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 1% of market cap
​
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
19% -34% 5% -14% 15%
87 ; 58 ; 61 ; 52 ; 60
  • Sales grew 15% in the third quarter to 60 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 40% now.
  • This brings the average to -7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 63 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
10% 81% -27% -48% -38%
4 ; 2 ; -22 ; -30 ; -28
  • The cash margin went from -48% to -38% profit from -30 to -28 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -8% now.
  • We use a 8% cash margin (from cashflow) to predict a -1 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
19 ; 25 ; -43 ; -15 ; 5
-116 ; -728 ; -17 ; -11 ; -6
  • Free cashflow went from -27 to -1 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -198 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -3 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 2 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
544 ; 1,192 ; 1,142 ; 1,113 ; 1,114
270 ; 913 ; 914 ; 906 ; 915
  • Cash increased 1,113 to 1,114 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 906 to 915 billion rupiah so net cash was down 207 to 199 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -9 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 208 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-27 ; -698 ; -10 ; 3 ; -2
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • CARE.jk (raised) -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter -2 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 9 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 15,229 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.70 X assets with a 341 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 9 billion rupiah which means a 1,725 X valuation. A 1,000 X valuation gives a -42% lower target price 265 rupiah.
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