CAMP 13% yield forecast
CAMP Current 288 Target 417 + 45%
11/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-3% -1% 0% 18% -4%
261 258 259 307 293
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -86% -83% -80% -82%
31 19 28 42 35
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
20 84 33 75 40
-5 -16 -10 -27 -22
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
583 610 611 681 492
145 124 169 173 159
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
120 161 161 161 367
0 0 0 0 0
0 41 0 0 206
11/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 13%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 15% of market cap
- Latest net cash 20% of market cap
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-3% -1% 0% 18% -4%
261 258 259 307 293
- Sales declined -4% in the third quarter to 293 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 2% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 325 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -86% -83% -80% -82%
31 19 28 42 35
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -82% profit from 42 to 35 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -82% cost ratio to predict a 38 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
20 84 33 75 40
-5 -16 -10 -27 -22
- Free cashflow went from 48 to 18 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -22 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 39 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -20 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 34 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
583 610 611 681 492
145 124 169 173 159
- Cash declined 681 to 492 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 173 to 159 billion rupiah so net cash was down 508 to 333 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -212 billion rupiah equity payout + 76 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 257 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
120 161 161 161 367
0 0 0 0 0
0 41 0 0 206
- CAMP cumulative capital improved 161 to 367 billion rupiah with 0 & + 206 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 503 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,695 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.56 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 136 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. An I 18 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price 417 rupiah.
