BYND, a -61% lower target price
Current 65 Target 25 -61%
December 11th 2021
1 minute read
Sales slumped -29%
Costs up, bigger loss
Cashflow more negative, we assume investment is slashed
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a -61% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales slumped -29%
- Sales slumped back down -29% in the third quarter to 106 million dollars vs our 109 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict slow average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 113 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up, bigger loss
- The cash cost ratio was higher again at -138% in the third quarter giving a -55 million dollars net profit.
- The average cost ratio is at -116% now.
- We use a hopeful -98% cost ratio to predict a -12 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow more negative, we assume investment is slashed
- Free cashflow was more negative at -123 million dollars in the third quarter with higher -52 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -82 million dollars now.
- We assume they slash to -4 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a less negative -1 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 1,009 to 886 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 1,212 to 1,225 million dollars so net cash worsened from -203 to -339 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -345 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -61% lower target price
- BYND capital from the last 15 quarters was flat at -1,322 million dollars in the third quarter & will be -1,328 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,085 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month sales forecast is 452 million dollars which means an 9 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a -61% lower target price of 25 rupiah.