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BYND, a -61% lower target price
Current 65 Target 25 -61%

December 11th 2021
1 minute read

Sales slumped -29%

• Sales slumped back down -29% in the third quarter to 106 million dollars vs our 109 million dollars forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
• We predict slow average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 113 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs up, bigger loss

• The cash cost ratio was higher again at -138% in the third quarter giving a -55 million dollars net profit.
• The average cost ratio is at -116% now.
• We use a hopeful -98% cost ratio to predict a -12 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow more negative, we assume investment is slashed

• Free cashflow was more negative at -123 million dollars in the third quarter with higher -52 million dollars investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -82 million dollars now.
• We assume they slash to -4 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a less negative -1 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet, higher leverage

• Cash declined from 1,009 to 886 million dollars in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased from 1,212 to 1,225 million dollars so net cash worsened from -203 to -339 million dollars
• With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -345 million dollars in 12 months time.

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Valuation, a -61% lower target price

• BYND capital from the last 15 quarters was flat at -1,322 million dollars in the third quarter & will be -1,328 million dollars in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 4,085 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3 X assets with a 0% yield.
• Our 12 month sales forecast is 452 million dollars which means an 9 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a -61% lower target price of 25 rupiah.

Data file & model