BYAN lower Cashflow
BYAN Current 66,500 Target 90,084 + 35%
Sep 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumprd 56%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
4% 39% 52% -29% 56%
523 725 1,103 784 1,221
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-42% -56% -39% -42% -69%
182 321 586 380 628
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
297 297 666 422 334
-48 -34 -55 -70 -52
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
326 530 980 1,332 620
584 594 571 653 686
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,444 1,494 1,655 1,655 2,650
227 40 132 0 -0
310 10 0 0 994
Sep 14, 2022
1 minute read
- BYAN last 12 months sales growth 6.5X average + 134%
- BYAN last 12 months cash flow 5X average + 10% of market cap
- BYAN last 12 months Capital 8X average + 8% of market cap
- BYAN latest net cash -0% of market cap
Sales jumprd 56%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
4% 39% 52% -29% 56%
523 725 1,103 784 1,221
- Sales jumped 56% in the second quarter to 1,221 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -12% now.
- This brings the average to 29% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,245 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-42% -56% -39% -42% -69%
182 321 586 380 628
- The cash cost ratio went from -42% to -69% profit from 380 to 628 million dollars in the second quarter with non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -52% now.
- We use the average -52% cost ratio to predict a 586 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
297 297 666 422 334
-48 -34 -55 -70 -52
- Free cashflow went from 352 to 282 million dollars in the second quarter with -52 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 377 million dollars now.
- We assume -61 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 518 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
326 530 980 1,332 620
584 594 571 653 686
- Cash declined 1,332 to 620 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 653 to 686 million dollars so net cash was down 679 to -67 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,024 million dollars equity payout -47 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -19 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity million dollars
1,444 1,494 1,655 1,655 2,650
227 40 132 0 -0
310 10 0 0 994
- BYAN cumulative capital improved 1,655 to 2,650 million dollars with -0 & + 994 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 4,720 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,287 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.70 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,071 million dollars (vs 1,508 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 35% higher target price 90,084 rupiah.
