BYAN 13% yield forecast
BYAN.jk Current 83,975 Target 95,762 + 14%
11/18/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 85%
Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
Latest net cash 3% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
39% 52% -29% 56% 10%
725 1,103 784 1,221 1,343
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-47% -53% -51% -48% -47%
321 586 380 628 700
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
297 666 422 334 767
-34 -55 -70 -52 -25
Net cash positive
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
530 980 1,332 620 1,325
594 571 653 686 804
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity million dollars
40 132 0 -0 0
10 0 0 994 34
11/18/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 85%
Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
Latest net cash 3% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
39% 52% -29% 56% 10%
725 1,103 784 1,221 1,343
- Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 1,343 million dollars our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,408 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-47% -53% -51% -48% -47%
321 586 380 628 700
- The cash cost ratio went from -48% to -47% profit from 628 to 700 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -50% now.
- We use a -48% cost ratio to predict a 710 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
297 666 422 334 767
-34 -55 -70 -52 -25
- Free cashflow went from 282 to 742 million dollars in the third quarter with -25 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 497 million dollars now.
- We assume -49 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 665 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash positive
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
530 980 1,332 620 1,325
594 571 653 686 804
- Cash increased 620 to 1,325 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 686 to 804 million dollars so net cash was up -67 to 521 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,513 million dollars equity payout -147 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 668 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity million dollars
40 132 0 -0 0
10 0 0 994 34
- BYAN.jk paid 34 million dollars in the third quarter 0 million dollars liabilities 34 million dollars equity & will pay 2,660 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 18,661 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.50 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,660 million dollars which means a 7 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 95,762 rupiah.
