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BYAN looking very sharp as cash jumps to over 1 billion dollars, a 21% yield forecast
BYAN Current 42,500 Target 98,923 + 133%
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -29%
Last 5 quarters
28% 4% 39% 52% -29%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-62% -62% -54% -46% -50%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
222, 250, 263, 611, 352
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-157, -258, -64, 409, 679
Capital paid flat , a 133% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
906 1,444 1,494 1,655 1,655
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -29%
Last 5 quarters
28% 4% 39% 52% -29%
- Sales declined seasonally -29% in the first quarter to 784 million dollars -17% below our 941 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,106 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-62% -62% -54% -46% -50%
- The cash cost ratio went from -46% to -50% profit from 586 to 380 million dollars in the first quarter with non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -53% now.
- We use the average -53% cost ratio to predict a 507 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
222, 250, 263, 611, 352
- Free cashflow went from 611 to 352 million dollars in the first quarter with -70 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 369 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -52 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 470 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-157, -258, -64, 409, 679
- Cash increased 980 to 1,332 million dollars in the first quarter
- Liabilities increased 571 to 653 million dollars so net cash improved 409 to 679 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,086 million dollars equity payout 337 million dollars new liabilities net cash will be 342 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 133% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
906 1,444 1,494 1,655 1,655
- BYAN 25 quarter capital paid was flat at 1,655 but will be 3,404 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,119 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.28 X assets with a 1 years payback & a 21% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,749 million dollars which means an 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 133% higher target price 98,923 rupiah.