BWPT cashflow stays positive
BWPT Current 66 Target 101 + 53%
10/29/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -29%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 3% -7% 111% -29%
779 804 745 1,575 1,119
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -81% -85% -91% -89%
-80 327 -221 33 173
Cashflow still positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-66 45 9 159 88
-67 -37 -23 13 -7
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
98 104 94 153 161
10,598 9,987 10,187 10,267 10,062
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,345 -1,334 -1,337 -1,226 -1,154
21 188 47 111 72
0 -170 -50 0 0
10/29/2022
1 minute read
- BWPT last 12 months sales growth + 44%
- BWPT last 12 months cash flow + 12% of market cap
- BWPT last 12 months Capital + 9% of market cap
- BWPT latest net cash -476% of market cap
Sales declined -29%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 3% -7% 111% -29%
779 804 745 1,575 1,119
- Sales declined -29% in the second quarter to 1,119 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 8% now.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,186 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -81% -85% -91% -89%
-80 327 -221 33 173
- The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -89% profit from 33 to 173 billion rupiah in the second quarter on non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use a -89% cost ratio to predict a 5 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow still positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-66 45 9 159 88
-67 -37 -23 13 -7
- Free cashflow went from 172 to 81 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 61 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 113 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
98 104 94 153 161
10,598 9,987 10,187 10,267 10,062
- Cash increased 153 to 161 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,267 to 10,062 billion rupiah so net cash was up -10,114 to -9,901 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity -453 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -9,448 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-1,345 -1,334 -1,337 -1,226 -1,154
21 188 47 111 72
0 -170 -50 0 0
- BWPT cumulative capital improved -1,226 to -1,154 billion rupiah with + 72 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -700 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,081 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.18 X assets with a 26 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 453 billion rupiah (vs 261 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price 101 rupiah.
