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BWPT less dull at breakeven
BWPT Current 78 Target 153 + 97%
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 33% 1% 3% -7%
Costs up, loss from non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-115% -92% -91% -81% -85%
Cashflow small negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
199, 31, -132, 7, -11
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,286 -10,344 -10,499 -9,883 -10,093
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 97% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,200 -1,206 -1,345 -1,334 -1,335
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 33% 1% 3% -7%
- Sales declined -7% in the first quarter to 745 billion rupiah -19% below our 924 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 951 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up, loss from non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-115% -92% -91% -81% -85%
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -85% profit from 327 to -221 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -220 billion rupiah non cash loss from asset sale.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use a lower -83% cost ratio to predict a 43 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow small negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
199, 31, -132, 7, -11
- Free cashflow went from 7 to -11 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -23 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at an almost breakeven -26 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -23 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 139 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,286 -10,344 -10,499 -9,883 -10,093
- Cash declined 104 to 94 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9,987 to 10,187 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -9,883 to -10,093 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -538 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,555 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 97% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,200 -1,206 -1,345 -1,334 -1,335
- BWPT 29 quarter capital raised worsened slightly -1,334 to -1,335 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -47 billion rupiah liabilities payment, 50 billion rupiah new equity but will be -797 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,459 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.21 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 538 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 97% higher target price 153 rupiah.