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BUMI, still raising capital,a -18% lower target price
Current 68 Target 56 -18%

December 4th 2021
1 minute read

Sales grew 6%

• Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 244 million dollars vs our 247 million dollars forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 14% growth.
• We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 298 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs 6 points lower, but still above 100%

• The cash cost ratio was 6 points lower at -107% in the third quarter while a posit e 65 million dollars net profit came from higher associates.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -113% now.
• We use a -97% cost ratio to predict a -2 million dollars loss in the third quarter of 2022.

Cashflow still negative

• Free cashflow was still negative -42 million dollars in the third quarter with -14 million dollars investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -35 million dollars now.
• We assume lower -2 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a -1 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet, higher leverage

• Cash increased from 97 to 133 million dollars in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased from 3,307 to 3,423 million dollars so net cash worsened from -3,210 to -3,290 million dollars.
• With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -3,268 million dollars in 12 months time.

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Valuation, still raising capital a -18% lower target price

• BUMI capital from the last 19 quarters worsened to -513 million dollars in the third quarter with 78 million dollars new liabilities but will improve to -491 million dollars in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 361 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.10 X assets with a 602 years payback & a 0% yield.
• Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 6 million dollars which means an 61 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -18% lower target price of 56 rupiah.

Data file & model