BUMI cashflow negative again
BUMI Current 183 Target 130 -29%
11/2/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
6% 40% 2% 77% -31%
244 342 350 619 426
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-87% -67% -93% -96% -89%
65 152 47 131 206
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
-28 14 32 43 -19
-14 -120 -57 127 -153
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
133 221 223 297 396
3,423 3,577 3,414 3,573 3,452
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-519 -478 -505 -551 -681
-78 207 34 -46 -130
-0 -166 -61 0 0
11/2/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 74%
- Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -70% of market cap
Sales declined -31%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
6% 40% 2% 77% -31%
244 342 350 619 426
- Sales declined -31% in the second quarter to 426 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 470 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-87% -67% -93% -96% -89%
65 152 47 131 206
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -89% profit from 131 to 206 million dollars in the second quarter on non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use a -88% cost ratio to predict a 154 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
-28 14 32 43 -19
-14 -120 -57 127 -153
- Free cashflow went negative again from 170 to -172 million dollars in the second quarter with -153 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -33 million dollars now.
- We assume -37 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 18 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
133 221 223 297 396
3,423 3,577 3,414 3,573 3,452
- Cash increased 297 to 396 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,573 to 3,452 million dollars so net cash was up -3,276 to -3,056 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -73 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -2,983 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-519 -478 -505 -551 -681
-78 207 34 -46 -130
-0 -166 -61 0 0
- BUMI cumulative capital worsened -551 to -681 million dollars with -130 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -607 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,340 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.85 X assets with a 57 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 73 million dollars (vs -133 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 59 X valuation. A 42 X valuation gives a -29% lower target price 130 rupiah.
