BUMI cashflow turns positive
BUMI Current 168 Target 208 + 24%
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 77%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% 6% 40% 2% 77%
231 244 342 350 619
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-183% -114% -95% -89% -92%
14 65 152 47 131
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-140 -28 14 32 43
59 -14 -120 -57 127
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
377 779 976 1,111 297
3,307 3,423 3,577 3,414 3,573
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-441 -519 -478 -505 -551
-50 -78 207 34 -46
-76 -0 -166 -61 0
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
- BUMI last 12 months sales growth 8X average + 168%
- BUMI last 12 months cash flow -0% of market cap
- BUMI last 12 months Capital -7% of market cap
- BUMI latest net cash -210% of market cap
Sales jumped 77%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
21% 6% 40% 2% 77%
231 244 342 350 619
- Sales jumped 77% in the second quarter to 619 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is + 6% now.
- This brings the average to 31% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 683 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-183% -114% -95% -89% -92%
14 65 152 47 131
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -92% profit from 47 to 131 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -97% now.
- We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a 159 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-140 -28 14 32 43
59 -14 -120 -57 127
- Free cashflow went positive from -25 to 170 million dollars in the second quarter with 127 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1 million dollars now.
- We assume -16 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 32 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
377 779 976 1,111 297
3,307 3,423 3,577 3,414 3,573
- Cash declined 1,111 to 297 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,414 to 3,573 million dollars so net cash was down -2,303 to -3,276 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -129 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -3,147 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-441 -519 -478 -505 -551
-50 -78 207 34 -46
-76 -0 -166 -61 0
- BUMI cumulative capital worsened -505 to -551 million dollars with -46 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -422 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,563 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 32 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 129 million dollars (vs -3 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 12 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 24% higher target price 208 rupiah.
