BUKK cashflow less negative
BUKK Current 1,130 Target 1,078 -5%
October 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 23%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-21% 8% 16% -24% 23%
840 908 1,051 794 973
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -82% -80% -83% -89%
69 123 171 101 76
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
255 -56 587 -113 86
1 -103 -405 -11 -137
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
683 556 587 392 366
1,906 1,871 1,908 1,957 1,732
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-196 -234 -83 -11 -32
104 -38 151 72 -21
0 0 0 0 0
October 8, 2022
1 minute read
- BUKK last 12 months sales growth + 16%
- BUKK last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
- BUKK last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- BUKK latest net cash -46% of market cap
Sales jumped 23%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-21% 8% 16% -24% 23%
840 908 1,051 794 973
- Sales jumped 23% in the second quarter to 973 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0 now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,025 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-87% -82% -80% -83% -89%
69 123 171 101 76
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -89% profit from 101 to 76 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a -84% cost ratio to predict a 124 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
255 -56 587 -113 86
1 -103 -405 -11 -137
- Free cashflow went less negative from -124 to -51 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -137 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -38 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -113 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 44 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
683 556 587 392 366
1,906 1,871 1,908 1,957 1,732
- Cash declined 392 to 366 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,957 to 1,732 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,565 to -1,366 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & 0 billion rupiah equity -178 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,188 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-196 -234 -83 -11 -32
104 -38 151 72 -21
0 0 0 0 0
- BUKK cumulative capital worsened -11 to -32 billion rupiah with -21 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 146 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,984 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 178 billion rupiah (vs -152 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 17 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a -5% lower target price 1,078 rupiah.
