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BUKA, a 1% higher target price
Current 488 Target 490 +1%

December 14th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales raising at 12% now, forecast 13%

• Sales 58% from a year ago & 12% from the Dusat half average in the third quarter to 484 billion rupiah.
• This brings the quarterly average to 10% growth.
• We predict faster average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 790 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

Costs 10 points better, but still negative margins

• The cash cost ratio was 10 points better at -169% in the third quarter giving a -120 billion rupiah net profit.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -170% now.
• We use a lower -115% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a -144 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow negative, forecast less negative

• Free cashflow was -369 billion rupiah in the third quarter even with positive 7 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -240 billion rupiah now.
• We assume the same 7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a less negative -111 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet, lots of cash after IPO

• Cash increased from 2,728 to 23,638 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased slightly from 1,028 to 1,067 billion rupiah so net cash jumped from 1,700 to 22,570 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 21,621 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Valuation, a 1% higher target price

• BUKA capital from the last 15 quarters worsened to -31,160 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -32,109 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  
• At the current market value of 50,290 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.98 X assets with a 0% yield.
  
• Our 12 month sales forecast is 3,159 billion rupiah which means a 15.9 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 1% higher target price of 490 rupiah.
  

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