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BUKA cashflow more negative

BUKA Current 276 Target 223 -19%

10/31/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months Sales growth + 86%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -24% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 54% of market cap

Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
10% 8% 51% 15% -0%
484 521 788 903 899
  • Sales declined slightly in the third quarter to 899 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 6% now.
  • This brings the average to 18% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,316 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up lower loss
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-173% -146% -120% -108% -134%
-361 -548 14,549 -5,959 -4,972
  • The cash cost ratio went from -108% to -134% profit from -5,959 to -4,972 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -127% now.
  • We use a -103% cost ratio to predict a -216 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-373 -285 -162 -72 -336
7 -677 -2,579 -448 -2,194
  • Free cashflow went more negative from -520 to -2,530 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,194 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,688 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1,475 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -1,679 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
23,638 24,700 19,967 19,515 17,037
1,067 3,120 1,800 1,599 1,797
  • Cash declined 19,515 to 17,037 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,599 to 1,797 billion rupiah so net cash was down 17,916 to 15,240 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -333 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 8,522 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
-31,173 -33,213 -31,213 -31,215 -31,217
0 -2,000 2,000 0 -1
-21,285 -40 0 -2 -1
  • BUKA capital worsened -31,215 to -31,217 billion rupiah with -1 & -1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -30,884 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 28,445 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.97 X assets with a -2 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our sales forecast is 4,589 billion rupiah which means a 6.2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 223 rupiah.
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