BUKA cashflow more negative
BUKA Current 276 Target 223 -19%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
10% 8% 51% 15% -0%
484 521 788 903 899
Costs up lower loss
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-173% -146% -120% -108% -134%
-361 -548 14,549 -5,959 -4,972
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-373 -285 -162 -72 -336
7 -677 -2,579 -448 -2,194
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
23,638 24,700 19,967 19,515 17,037
1,067 3,120 1,800 1,599 1,797
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
-31,173 -33,213 -31,213 -31,215 -31,217
0 -2,000 2,000 0 -1
-21,285 -40 0 -2 -1
10/31/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 86%
- Last 12 months cash flow -24% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash 54% of market cap
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
10% 8% 51% 15% -0%
484 521 788 903 899
- Sales declined slightly in the third quarter to 899 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 6% now.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,316 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up lower loss
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-173% -146% -120% -108% -134%
-361 -548 14,549 -5,959 -4,972
- The cash cost ratio went from -108% to -134% profit from -5,959 to -4,972 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -127% now.
- We use a -103% cost ratio to predict a -216 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-373 -285 -162 -72 -336
7 -677 -2,579 -448 -2,194
- Free cashflow went more negative from -520 to -2,530 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,194 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,688 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,475 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -1,679 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
23,638 24,700 19,967 19,515 17,037
1,067 3,120 1,800 1,599 1,797
- Cash declined 19,515 to 17,037 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,599 to 1,797 billion rupiah so net cash was down 17,916 to 15,240 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -333 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 8,522 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, liabilities , equity billion rupiah
-31,173 -33,213 -31,213 -31,215 -31,217
0 -2,000 2,000 0 -1
-21,285 -40 0 -2 -1
- BUKA capital worsened -31,215 to -31,217 billion rupiah with -1 & -1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -30,884 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 28,445 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.97 X assets with a -2 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 4,589 billion rupiah which means a 6.2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price 223 rupiah.
