BSDE last 12 months sales growth +24%
Current 970 Target 1,386 + 43%
Mar 12, 2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
30% -19% -11% 83% -7%
2,488 ; 2,027 ; 1,809 ; 3,310 ; 3,090 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
25% 24% 13% 19% 56%
506 ; 372 ; 137 ; 512 ; 1,636 billion rupiah
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-34 ; 1,344 ; 289 ; 655 ; 45 billion rupiah
245 ; -245 ; 415 ; 1,160 ; -878 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,767 ; 8,927 ; 9,122 ; 10,536 ; 9,734 billion rupiah
25,576 ; 26,903 ; 27,594 ; 27,367 ; 26,954 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-154 ; -59 ; 360 ; 328 ; 100 billion rupiah
240 ; -1 ; 208 ; 74 ; -20 billion rupiah
Mar 12, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 24%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -85% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
30% -19% -11% 83% -7%
2,488 ; 2,027 ; 1,809 ; 3,310 ; 3,090 billion rupiah
- Sales declined -7% in the fourth quarter to 3,090 billion rupiah .
- This brings the quarterly average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,067 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
25% 24% 13% 19% 56%
506 ; 372 ; 137 ; 512 ; 1,636 billion rupiah
- The cash profit margin went from 19% to 56% net profit from 512 to 1,636 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 28% now.
- We use a 20% cash profit margin to predict a 510 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-34 ; 1,344 ; 289 ; 655 ; 45 billion rupiah
245 ; -245 ; 415 ; 1,160 ; -878 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 1,815 to -833 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -878 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 696 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 113 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 659 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
7,767 ; 8,927 ; 9,122 ; 10,536 ; 9,734 billion rupiah
25,576 ; 26,903 ; 27,594 ; 27,367 ; 26,954 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 10,536 to 9,734 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 27,367 to 26,954 billion rupiah so net cash was down -16,831 to -17,220 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -528 billion rupiah equity payout -2,108 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -15,112 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-154 ; -59 ; 360 ; 328 ; 100 billion rupiah
240 ; -1 ; 208 ; 74 ; -20 billion rupiah
- BSDE.jk paid 80 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 100 billion rupiah liabilities -20 billion rupiah equity, will pay 2,636 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 20,286 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.32 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 3% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,636 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price 1,386 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS CAPITAL